olivLaw · US equity research
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. HDL
Retail-Eating Places · SIC 5812 · Vertical: Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812)
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. operates Haidilao hot pot restaurants outside Greater China, with 126 restaurants in 14 countries. With revenue growth slowing to 8.0% in fiscal 2025, the company saw its restaurant-level operating margin decline, making cost trends a key point to watch for investors.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. (HDL) stock was 9.90 USD (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn USD, P/E 247.5 on diluted EPS of 0.04 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.24, 52-week range 9.74–18.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.17 – 11.87
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.27 · band width 25.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.79 / 14.15
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.53 / -0.55
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.5% | −1.1% | −11.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.6% | −0.5% | −26.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −28.3% | +4.4% | −32.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −38.4% | +12.3% | −50.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −43.2% | +13.5% | −56.7 pp | +8.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −0.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 719.0, median 719.0, max 719.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 558.2 m | 686.4 m | 778.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +23.0% | +13.4% |
| Net income | -41.2 m | 25.7 m | 21.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −15.0% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −20.0% |
| net % | -7.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Free cash flow | 7.9 m | 81.2 m | 85.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 254.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 361.7 m USD
- Total assets
- unavailable USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.51x
- ROE
- 6.9%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- 10.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 558.2 m | 686.4 m | 778.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Research & development | 1.5 m | 2.7 m | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 73.0 m | 78.6 m | 81.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 12.5 m | 8.4 m | 8.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -32.2 m | 33.1 m | 33.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 9.0 m | 7.9 m | 11.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -41.2 m | 25.7 m | 21.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 93.9 m | 152.9 m | 254.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | — | 29.8 m | 31.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 219.0 m | 323.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 168.7 m | 151.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 402.0 k | 278.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 128.6 m | 128.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 242.0 m | 272.1 m | 361.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 650.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 68.3 m | 114.0 m | 119.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 60.5 m | 32.8 m | 34.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 7.9 m ≈ | 81.2 m ≈ | 85.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 888.0 k | -11.8 m | -27.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -65.9 m | -43.8 m | 12.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.73 – 1.32 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E0.73 – 1.32 (Mid 0.90)23 companies used · median multiple 22.5x · quartiles 18.2x – 32.9xARCO, ARMK, BDL, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DRI, EAT, FWRG, GTIM, JACK, LOCO, MCD, NATH, PTLO, PZZA, QSR, TXRH, WING, YUM, YUMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.8% | 59 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 389.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 247.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 29% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.3% | 16 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation7/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. (HDL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 778.3 m USD in 2024; YoY growth 13.4%; net margin 2.8%; ROE 6.9%.
The estimated value range is 0.73–1.32 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.90 USD, the price of 9.90 USD leaves a potential of -90.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -998.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 389.7%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 247.5x
- FCF yield: 1.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating Places (SIC 5812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | 26.1 bn | 22.5 | 55.1% | 8.8% | +9.4% | +28% / +47% |
| QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc. | 24.8 bn | 18.2 | 53.8% | 20.1% | +12.2% | +8% / +10% |
| YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc. | 17.0 bn | 18.3 | 17.5% | 7.8% | +4.4% | +3% / +15% |
| ARMKAramark | 13.8 bn | 36.7 | 11.8% | 1.9% | +6.4% | +41% / +87% |
| TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | 12.9 bn | 31.3 | 28.1% | 6.8% | +9.4% | +12% / +75% |
| EATBrinker International, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 19.4 | 134.7% | 8.4% | +7.9% | +43% / +512% |
| CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | 7.2 bn | 109.3 | 8.3% | 4.8% | +22.4% | +27% / +82% |
| HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd. | 6.4 bn | 247.5 | 6.9% | 2.8% | +13.4% | −43% / unavailable |
| CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 5.8 bn | 27.4 | 41.6% | 5.2% | +4.7% | +142% / +268% |
| WINGWingstop Inc. | 4.5 bn | 39.3 | — | 16.0% | +11.4% | −37% / −30% |
| CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 50.2 | 6.7% | 1.0% | −4.7% | +143% / +5% |
| ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 1.5 bn | 7.0 | 33.2% | 4.5% | +4.7% | −7% / −39% |
| BJRIBj’s Restaurants, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.0 | 10.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +61% / +106% |
| SGSweetgreen, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 117.9 | 3.1% | 2.0% | +0.4% | +82% / +25% |
| BLMNBloomin’ Brands, Inc. | 939.3 m | 35.1 | 6.7% | 0.7% | +0.1% | +55% / −53% |
| FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 833.3 m | 42.1 | 3.1% | 1.5% | +20.3% | −27% / −25% |
| PZZAPapa John’s International, Inc. | 658.1 m | 25.1 | — | 1.4% | −0.3% | −52% / −69% |
| LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 501.2 m | 14.1 | 11.8% | 7.0% | +3.6% | +51% / +98% |
| DINDine Brands Global, Inc. | 448.6 m | 106.7 | — | 0.4% | +8.2% | +17% / −16% |
| NATHNathan's Famous, Inc. | 418.2 m | 21.1 | — | 11.8% | +9.4% | −4% / +56% |
| PTLOPortillo's Inc. | 336.8 m | 29.8 | 3.0% | 1.9% | +3.0% | +4% / −65% |
| PLAYDave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. | 305.8 m | — | -69.7% | -4.3% | −1.4% | −50% / −79% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HDL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.34 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 9.41 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 14.12 Total return 43% · Per year 43% |
| 3 years | 6.15 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 12.10 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 19.80 Total return 100% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 7.09 Total return -28% · Per year -6% | 15.56 Total return 57% · Per year 9% | 27.75 Total return 180% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 3.02
- Net margin± 2.12
- Annual revenue growth± 1.60
- Annual dilution± 0.18
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026).
In brief
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. operates Haidilao hot pot restaurants outside Greater China, with 126 restaurants in 14 countries 1. With revenue growth slowing to 8.0% in fiscal 2025, the company saw its restaurant-level operating margin decline, making cost trends a key point to watch for investors 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Haidilao brand has strong global recognition, built over more than three decades, and the company has extended it successfully to several regions 1.
- The management model combines standardized operations with local adaptation, which allows fast openings, and new restaurants generally reach breakeven within months 1.
- The loyalty program has grown considerably, suggesting a base of guests who return 1.
Weaknesses
- The restaurant-level operating margin declined in fiscal 2025, showing how sensitive profitability is to costs 1.
- Same-store sales growth slowed markedly in fiscal 2025 compared with the prior year 1.
- The company depends on a single cuisine type and on a brand also used by an affiliated entity, which could affect its image if incidents occur 1.
Opportunities
- Existing markets can be expanded through new restaurants, and new markets can add revenue if they reach expected sales quickly 1.
- Delivery and prepacked food are new revenue sources the company intends to develop 1.
- Optimizing off-peak hours and a localized supply chain could improve restaurant performance 1.
Risks
- Multi-jurisdiction operationshigh
Operating in several countries exposes the company to political, currency, tax and regulatory risks, and its management system may not be sufficient for all of them 1.
- Food safetyhigh
A serious food-related incident could hurt reputation and financial results, and reliance on third-party suppliers adds a factor the company does not fully control 1.
- Consumer tastesmedium
If hot pot falls out of favor with guests, especially in markets with smaller Asian communities, demand could decline 1.
- Labor and ingredient costsmedium
Rising staff or ingredient costs could compress margins, as already seen in fiscal 2025 1.
- Share price volatilitymedium
The trading price of the ADSs may be volatile, and investors could suffer substantial losses, according to the report's warnings 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If expansion in existing and new countries proceeds quickly, the company could turn its restaurant network into a growing revenue source, built on an already globally recognized brand 1.
- If operating margins recover from the fiscal 2025 decline, profitability could rise meaningfully 1.
- If delivery and prepacked food develop as new revenue sources, the company could reduce its dependence on restaurants alone 1.
What would break the thesis
- If same-store sales keep slowing and margins stay below 2024 levels, results could be affected over the longer term 1.
- If a food safety incident affected several restaurants, the brand's reputation could suffer 1.
- If currency swings and net profit remain volatile, reported results could be hard to interpret 1.
What to watch
- Trend in restaurant-level operating marginQ1 2027
- Same-store sales growth2027
- Development of delivery and prepacked food revenue2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026).
The business
The company is the international arm of the Haidilao brand, rooted in Sichuan since 1994, which opened its first restaurant in Singapore in 2012 1. According to its annual report, it had 126 restaurants in 14 countries at the end of 2025 and no restaurants in Greater China 1. The model rests on a philosophy of 'aligned interests and disciplined management', combined with menu and service adaptation to local tastes 1.
Revenue in fiscal 2025 reached 840.8 million USD, of which restaurant operations accounted for 790.0 million USD, with the rest coming from delivery and sales of condiments and food products 1. The company reports average daily revenue of 18.1 thousand USD per restaurant and 3.9 table turns per day, indicators that show the productivity of its network 1.
The company aims to become a leading global integrated restaurant group, focused on building its brand and promoting Chinese ccuisine, improving restaurant performance, and developing new revenue sources such as prepacked food and delivery 1.
Segments
Haidilao restaurant operations
The core segment of self-operated restaurants generated 790.0 million USD in fiscal 2025, or 94.0% of revenue 1. Same-store sales growth was only 2.9% in fiscal 2025, down from 7.1% in fiscal 2024 1.
Market context
The company operates in the international Chinese restaurant market, which the source describes as highly fragmented, with few Chinese brands managing to expand internationally while keeping consistent quality 1. Hot pot is regarded as one of the most popular and fastest-growing segments of Chinese cuisine 1.
The growth of this market depends on consumer tastes and on the popularity of hot pot in countries with smaller Asian communities, a factor the source treats as uncertain 1. The company reported net profit of 36.3 million USD in fiscal 2025, but its income from operation margin fell to 4.4% 1.
Trends
- Expansion into new marketstailwind
The company continues to expand within existing countries and explores new markets, which could lift revenue if restaurants reach expected sales levels quickly 1.
- Margin pressureheadwind
The restaurant-level operating margin declined in fiscal 2025, and rising staff and ingredient costs could weigh on profitability if the trend continues 1.
- Currency effectsmixed
Net profit has been heavily influenced by foreign exchange gains and losses, which can vary widely from year to year, with the appreciation of local currencies bringing gains in fiscal 2025 1.
- Local taste adaptationmixed
Adapting menus to local tastes and building delivery open new revenue sources, but they can also create demand that is unstable as consumer preferences shift 1.
Competitive position
The source points to intense competition in the international catering market, where the brand must maintain its recognition and quality advantage 1. The company relies on its more than 30-year-old brand to differentiate itself 1.
The source does not name specific competitors, and describes competitive pressure in general terms, tied to the ability to anticipate changes in local markets 1.
- Other overseas Chinese restaurant brands
The source mentions competition in the international Chinese cuisine market without naming specific companies.
- Local hot pot restaurants
Competition in each country includes local operators who may adapt menus to tastes and costs more quickly.
- General restaurant chains
The source compares the brand with global restaurant chains, without indicating a direct competitive relationship.
- Southeast Asian competitors
The company's largest region is also one where local competition may be most intense.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Haidilao Billionaire’s $350 Million Surprise Sale Sinks SharesBloomberg Markets · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Haidilao shares jump as delivery growth and new restaurant brands boost outlookCNBC World · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. · 13 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.