olivLaw · US equity research
Alto Ingredients, Inc. ALTO
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
Alto Ingredients is a U.S. producer and distributor of specialty alcohols, renewable fuels and essential ingredients, operating five alcohol plants. It reported a fourth consecutive quarter of positive gross profit in the second quarter of 2026, as tax credits and CO2 sales add to results.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) stock was 3.50 USD (−1.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 271.5 m USD, P/E 5.3 on diluted EPS of 0.66 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.52, 52-week range 1.16–5.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 245.7 m USD (+12.5% YoY), net income of 11.7 m USD, diluted EPS 0.15 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.44 – 3.80
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 9.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.79 / 4.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.07 / -0.08
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.7% | −1.1% | −6.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.8% | −0.5% | −30.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −37.1% | +4.4% | −41.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.5% | +12.3% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +209.7% | +13.5% | +196.2 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | −24.2% | +76.4% | −100.7 pp | −33.8% |
| 5 years | −38.2% | +63.7% | −101.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 251.8 m | 236.3 m | 226.5 m | 218.4 m | 241.0 m | 232.0 m | 224.7 m | 245.7 m |
| Cost of revenue | 245.9 m | 237.7 m | 228.3 m | 220.4 m | 217.5 m | 216.8 m | 215.5 m | 229.1 m |
| Gross profit | 6.0 m | -1.4 m | -1.8 m | -1.9 m | 23.5 m | 15.2 m | 9.2 m | 16.6 m |
| SG&A | 7.5 m | 5.3 m | 7.2 m | 6.2 m | 6.5 m | 7.3 m | 6.7 m | 8.0 m |
| Operating income | -720.0 k | -39.2 m | -9.0 m | -8.1 m | 17.0 m | 7.5 m | 2.5 m | 8.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 6.1 m | 6.5 m | 6.3 m | 6.4 m | 6.3 m | 6.3 m | 6.4 m | 6.5 m |
| Interest expense | 1.9 m | 2.5 m | 2.7 m | 2.8 m | 2.8 m | 2.4 m | 2.2 m | 2.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -2.4 m | -41.5 m | -11.7 m | -11.0 m | 14.2 m | 21.2 m | 4.3 m | 11.7 m |
| Net income | -2.4 m | -41.7 m | -11.7 m | -11.0 m | 14.2 m | 21.8 m | 4.3 m | 11.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.04 | -0.56 ≈ | -0.16 | -0.15 | 0.19 | 0.27 ≈ | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Operating cash flow | 18.6 m ≈ | -9.8 m | -18.2 m | -848.0 k ≈ | 22.8 m ≈ | 9.5 m | 4.2 m | 28.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 491.0 k ≈ | 1.3 m | 532.0 k | 484.0 k ≈ | 1.6 m ≈ | 1.9 m | 909.0 k | 10.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 8.6, median 18.6, max 685.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 897.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 965.3 m | 917.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | −7.2% | −6.0% | — | +34.7% | +10.6% | −8.4% | −21.1% | −4.9% |
| Net income | -60.3 m | -88.9 m | -15.1 m | 46.1 m | -41.6 m | -28.0 m | -59.0 m | 13.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | −190.3% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.42 | -1.90 | -0.28 | 0.61 | -0.60 | -0.40 | -0.82 | 0.16 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | −198.4% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -4.0% | -6.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% | -3.1% | -2.3% | -6.1% | 1.5% |
| Free cash flow | -13.6 m | -34.5 m | 65.1 m | 10.4 m | -31.7 m | -7.5 m | -14.6 m | 8.6 m |
The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 23.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 79.6 m USD
- Net debt
- 56.2 m USD
- Equity
- 245.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 388.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.32x
- Current ratio
- 2.64x
- ROE
- 5.7%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 0.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 897.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 965.3 m | 917.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 844.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 955.5 m | 883.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 52.9 m | 67.8 m | -27.6 m | 15.7 m | 9.7 m | 34.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 32.0 m | 29.2 m | 28.1 m | 29.9 m | 29.7 m | 27.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 9.9 m | 40.1 m | -61.4 m | -23.8 m | -51.7 m | 7.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 23.3 m | 25.1 m | 23.1 m | 24.4 m | 25.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 63.4 m ≈ | -36.3 m ≈ | -768.0 k ≈ | -27.3 m ≈ | 32.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 17.9 m | 3.6 m | 1.8 m | 7.4 m | 7.6 m | 10.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -17.3 m | 47.6 m | -39.7 m | -27.9 m | -58.8 m | 12.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -17.0 k | 1.5 m | 1.9 m | 97.0 k | 173.0 k | -621.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -15.1 m | 46.1 m | -41.6 m | -28.0 m | -59.0 m | 13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.28 | 0.61 | -0.60 | -0.40 | -0.82 | 0.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 58.6 k | 72.2 m | 71.9 m | 73.3 m | 73.5 m | 75.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 47.7 m | 50.6 m | 36.5 m | 30.0 m | 35.5 m | 23.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 43.5 m | 86.9 m | 68.7 m | 58.7 m | 58.2 m | 55.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 37.9 m | 54.4 m | 66.6 m | 52.6 m | 49.9 m | 61.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 214.0 m | 229.5 m | 199.1 m | 168.8 m | 153.1 m | 155.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 229.5 m | 222.6 m | 239.1 m | 248.7 m | 214.7 m | 198.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 6.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.7 m | 2.7 m | 9.1 m | 8.5 m | 4.5 m | 7.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 476.8 m | 485.0 m | 478.3 m | 454.2 m | 401.4 m | 388.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 28.1 m | 20.8 m | 20.4 m | 14.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 25.5 m | — | — | — | — | 16.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 71.8 m | 50.4 m | 68.4 m | 82.1 m | 92.9 m | 63.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 86.9 m | 69.6 m | 78.0 m | 65.3 m | 57.8 m | 59.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 180.6 m | 139.7 m | 170.2 m | 174.7 m | 176.4 m | 143.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 296.2 m | 345.2 m | 308.1 m † | 279.6 m † | 225.1 m † | 245.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 71.7 m | 26.8 m | 6.0 m | 22.0 m | -3.5 m | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.6 m | 16.4 m | 37.7 m | 29.5 m | 11.1 m | 4.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 65.1 m ≈ | 10.4 m ≈ | -31.7 m ≈ | -7.5 m ≈ | -14.6 m ≈ | 8.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 23.3 m | 27.1 m | -37.7 m | -33.0 m | -13.5 m | -7.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -66.4 m | -40.0 m | 19.0 m | 7.0 m | 7.7 m | -16.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 1.3 m | 3.7 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 73 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 271.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet73
- Quality78
- Valuation91
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.20 – 13.39 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)8.19 – 13.39 (Mid 10.15)WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 57.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA4.20 – 11.46 (Mid 7.09)6 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 5.9x – 15.2xGPRE, LYB, MEOH, NEU, SXT, WLK
- Peers: P/E6.34 – 10.08 (Mid 8.56)7 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 9.5x – 15.2xGPRE, LNZA, LYB, NEU, REX, SXT, WLKP
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 73/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.1% | 70 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.5% | 74 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 96.1% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 86 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 5.3x | 89 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.0x | 86 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 18.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALTO INGREDIENTS, INC. (ALTO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 917.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -4.9%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 22.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 6.34–11.46 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8.56 USD, the price of 3.50 USD leaves a potential of 144.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 59.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 10.1%
- Net margin: 5.5%
- FCF conversion: 96.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Current ratio: 3.2x
- P/E (TTM): 5.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
- FCF yield: 18.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +210% / −24% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALTO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.89 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 3.35 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 5.07 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 1.50 Total return -57% · Per year -25% | 3.03 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 5.07 Total return 45% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 1.19 Total return -66% · Per year -19% | 2.73 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 5.07 Total return 45% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 0.76
- Net margin± 0.53
- Annual revenue growth± 0.48
- Annual dilution± 0.04
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Alto Ingredients is a U.S. producer and distributor of specialty alcohols, renewable fuels and essential ingredients, operating five alcohol plants. It reported a fourth consecutive quarter of positive gross profit in the second quarter of 2026, as tax credits and CO2 sales add to results 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a diversified production capacity across several market segments, from pharmaceutical alcohols to fuels 1. Its customer and supplier relationships are long-standing, and its quality certifications are recognized by customers 1. Recent quarterly results show positive gross profit and adjusted EBITDA 3.
- The Midwest location offers rail, truck and barge logistics, and the wet milling process at Pekin gives a higher recovery from corn 1. Access to 45Z and 45Q tax credits can improve returns on investment 1.
- The management team has experience in the alcohol industry, and the reorganization has cut structural costs and improved the quality of revenue 13.
Weaknesses
- Margins are sensitive to corn, natural gas and ethanol prices, and the spread between them can turn negative 1. The Magic Valley plant remains idle, which means unused capacity 1.
- The company recorded asset impairments in recent years and had net losses in the past, showing exposure to market cycles 13. Fixed-price contracts can be renegotiated by customers when prices fall 1.
- Reliance on a small number of plants and on a single loadout dock at Pekin makes operations sensitive to disruptions, as seen after the 2025 damage 1.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for liquid CO2 and added storage capacity could bring new revenue 1. Investment in a second loadout dock and in Pekin dry mill capacity could raise throughput 1.
- Fuel and premium alcohol exports to Europe and other markets can carry premiums over domestic prices 1. If the 45Z program expands, credit earnings could grow significantly 1.
- The at-the-market share program could provide funding for growth projects if their returns prove attractive 3.
Threats
- Federal renewable fuel policy and tax credits can be changed, and such changes could reduce expected earnings 1. Oil and gasoline prices directly influence ethanol demand 1.
- New technologies that replace corn-based ethanol could make current plants less competitive 1. Capacity growth by other producers can push prices down 1.
- Extreme weather and operational hazards such as damage and transport disruptions can halt production, and insurance may not cover all losses 1.
Risks
- Volatile input and output priceshigh
Margins can be squeezed if corn and gas prices rise while ethanol prices fall, as happened in the past and could recur 1.
- Reliance on tax creditshigh
A significant part of results depends on 45Z credits, whose value depends on rules and calculations, and changes could reduce earnings 13.
- Operational disruptionsmedium
Dock damage, extreme winter weather and transport disruptions have halted production in the past, and insurance may not cover all losses 12.
- Asset impairmentmedium
Long-lived assets could be impaired if economic conditions worsen, and recent impairments have affected results 1.
- Dilution from the share programlow
The at-the-market share program could lead to new shares being issued, which could reduce per-share earnings for existing shareholders 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If margins stay positive after a fourth consecutive quarter of gross profit, the company could show that its diversified model works across price cycles 3.
- 45Z and 45Q credits and rising demand for liquid CO2 could add revenue that does not depend only on ethanol prices 1.
- Pharmaceutical and food certifications allow premium-priced sales, which could reduce dependence on the fuel market 1.
What would break the thesis
- Profitability depends heavily on tax credits, and if these are reduced or delayed, results could return to losses 13.
- The ethanol market is cyclical and prices can fall quickly, and plants have been idled in the past because margins turned negative 1.
- The at-the-market share program could dilute shareholders if it is used heavily 3.
What to watch
- Trend in crush margins and gross profit per gallonQ3 2026
- Confirmation of 2026 45Z credits at the expected value2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Alto Ingredients is a major producer and distributor of specialty alcohols, renewable fuels and essential ingredients, with five alcohol plants: three in Illinois, one in Oregon and one in Idaho. Its annual production capacity of 330 million gallons includes both renewable fuels and specialty alcohols, with up to 110 million gallons of specialty alcohols 1. The company also markets alcohols produced by third parties, which lets it deliver a total volume far larger than its own capacity 1. Its shares trade on Nasdaq under the symbol ALTO 1.
The strategy aims to expand specialty alcohols, essential ingredients and higher-value products such as liquid CO2, acquired in 2025 with the plant next to the Oregon facility 1. Quality certifications, including for use as a pharmaceutical ingredient, are a differentiator the company cites 1. It is focusing on optimizing its Western assets, where the Magic Valley plant remains cold-idled and options include a sale or a restart 1.
Segments
Pekin production
The Pekin segment covers alcohol and essential ingredient production at the three Pekin, Illinois plants in the heart of the Corn Belt, with rail, truck and barge access 1. It is the segment with the largest share of specialty alcohol production and benefits from the wet milling process, which extracts more value from each corn kernel 11.
Marketing and distribution
The marketing and distribution segment sells all alcohols and essential ingredients the company produces, along with fuel-grade ethanol bought from third parties for customers in the West and Midwest 12. Margins on third-party ethanol can turn negative when prices fall, a point the risk factors state explicitly 1.
Trends
- CO2 capture and usetailwind
Higher 45Q credits and rising demand for liquid CO2 open new revenue opportunities at the Columbia plant and the Pekin Campus 1. Realizing these projects depends on further investment and regulatory approvals 1.
- Fuel exportsmixed
Exports of ISCC-certified ethanol to Europe carried premiums over domestic sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 1. If access to export markets narrows, that price advantage could shrink 1.
- Input costs and inflationheadwind
Corn, natural gas and labor costs have risen, and inflation puts pressure on margins that could hurt results if selling prices do not follow costs 12. Lower staffing costs after the restructuring helped margins in 2025 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with other ethanol and specialty alcohol producers in the United States and abroad, though the sources do not name competitors or give market shares. The competitive factors cited are certified quality, logistics costs and the ability to produce premium alcohols 1.
The company itself flags substitution risk: new technologies or alternatives to corn-based ethanol could make existing plants less competitive 1. Higher output from other producers or restarts of idled plants could also push prices down 1.
- Other U.S. ethanol producers
Ethanol producers compete in the renewable fuels market and for ethanol supply, and restarts of idled plants could raise pressure on prices 1.
- Specialty alcohol producers
Competition for pharmaceutical- and food-grade alcohol comes from producers with similar certifications, and Alto says its certifications are an advantage 1.
- Animal feed ingredient suppliers
In essential ingredients, competition comes from protein and feed suppliers, and the sources do not name them 1.
- Liquid CO2 suppliers
In liquid CO2 the company competes with other suppliers in the Pacific Northwest, where demand is growing 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- PHP2Shell Attacks Root Palo Alto Firewalls but Fail Against WordPressSecurityWeek · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- L'alto ufficiale licenziato da Heghseth aveva dato informazioni riservate su Iran e Ucraina a due giornalisti - Agenzia NovaSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- ALTO Home continuă dezvoltarea proiectului rezidențial din Ploiești cu finanțare de la Libra Internet Bank - AgerpresAgerpres · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Attackers Exploit PHP2Shell Flaws in Internet-Exposed Palo Alto Networks Management InterfacesThe Hacker News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Palo Alto's firewall OS has been under attack from multiple ransomware groups since JuneThe Register · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Qilin and INC Ransomware Groups Exploit Palo Alto Networks Flaw to Bypass MFAThe Hacker News · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Palo Alto Networks Patches PAN-OS Zero-Day Exploited for Remote Code ExecutionSecurityWeek · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Palo Alto Networks Patches PAN-OS Authenticated RCE Flaw Amid Active ExploitationThe Hacker News · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Palo Alto Networks warns of PAN-OS RCE flaw exploited in attacksBleepingComputer · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- All In On Cybersecurity : The Choice Between Palo Alto Networks or Crowdstrike Not DifficultSurge — GDELT DOC · 30 Sept 2026 · RO
- Defesa Civil já enviou 30 alertas de alto risco para celulares do RS em 2026 ; saiba como é feito o cell broadcastSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
- Palo Alto Is Knocking on $400 as Wall Street Rushes Into Cyber . Buy , Hold , or Sell ?Surge — GDELT DOC · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Palo Alto CEO says slowing down AI is ‘unrealistic’, extinction threat ‘extremely small’CNBC — Top News · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cybersecurity Stocks Rally While Large-Cap Tech Slides: CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Okta, and Palantir Each Gain 4%Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why Bernstein Still Sees 46% Upside in Zscaler (ZS) but Downgraded Palo Alto (PANW)Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Palo Alto Networks unveils AI-powered cybersecurity service using Claude, GPT modelsYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cybersecurity Stocks Extend Gains on AI Safety Warnings: CrowdStrike and Okta Rise 4%, Palo Alto Ticks UpYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Morgan Stanley Raises Palo Alto Networks Price Target to $410 on AI Security DemandYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- The AI Slowdown Trade Has Some Winners: CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Rally While Chips FallYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne, and Other Cybersecurity Stocks Surged This WeekYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 30 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
- Annual report13 Mar 2026
- Current report04 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Alto Ingredients, Inc. · 13 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alto Ingredients, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alto Ingredients, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.