olivLaw · US equity research
Gevo, Inc. GEVO
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
Gevo is a diversified energy company that develops and operates renewable fuel, chemical and carbon management facilities, mainly for sectors that are hard to electrify such as aviation. The company is at a turning point: in the second quarter of 2026 it recorded a non-cash impairment of 176 million USD, and its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook was raised to more than 60 million USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) stock was 1.28 USD (+7.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 316.5 m USD, beta 1.18, 52-week range 1.11–2.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 46.5 m USD (+7.1% YoY), net income of -176.9 m USD (−8,352.8% YoY), diluted EPS -0.75 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.07 – 1.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 22.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.39 / 1.71
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.8% | −1.1% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.3% | −0.5% | −15.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −37.6% | +4.4% | −42.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −36.0% | +12.3% | −48.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −39.3% | +13.5% | −52.9 pp | −1.7% |
| 3 years | +0.8% | +76.4% | −75.6 pp | −33.8% |
| 5 years | −82.6% | +63.7% | −146.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 m | 5.7 m | 29.1 m | 43.4 m | 42.7 m | 45.3 m | 42.9 m | 46.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 2.5 m | 3.4 m | 21.4 m | 17.3 m | 22.3 m | 24.2 m | 20.2 m | 19.9 m |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | 18.9 m | — | — | — | 19.8 m |
| Research & development | 1.1 m | 1.3 m | 1.1 m | 934.0 k | 1.3 m | 1.3 m | 1.5 m | 440.0 k |
| Operating income | -24.0 m | -19.6 m | -20.1 m | 5.8 m | -3.7 m | -2.2 m | -4.9 m | -171.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.5 m | 6.1 m | 5.6 m | 7.2 m | 7.4 m | 5.1 m | 6.9 m | 6.8 m |
| Interest expense | 1.1 m | 1.1 m | 3.3 m | 4.3 m | 5.2 m | 4.7 m | 5.2 m | 5.6 m |
| Income tax | 0 ≈ | — | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | — | 0 | 0 ≈ |
| Net income | -21.2 m | -17.6 m | -21.7 m | 2.1 m | -8.0 m | -6.3 m | -21.7 m | -176.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.09 | -0.08 ≈ | -0.09 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.03 ≈ | -0.09 | -0.75 |
| Operating cash flow | -11.0 m ≈ | -18.8 m | -24.0 m | -2.5 m ≈ | -6.8 m ≈ | 20.0 m | -21.1 m | -8.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 9.8 m | 14.6 m | 5.8 m | 5.2 m ≈ | 7.8 m ≈ | 11.2 m | 8.9 m | 12.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 646.0 k ≈ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32.9 m | 24.5 m | 5.5 m | 711.0 k | 1.2 m | 17.2 m | 16.9 m | 160.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | +19.3% | −25.5% | −77.4% | −87.2% | +65.3% | +1,363.8% | −1.7% | +849.3% |
| Net income | -28.0 m | -28.7 m | -40.2 m | -59.2 m | -98.0 m | -66.2 m | -78.6 m | -33.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -0.30 | -0.44 | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -85.1% | -117.0% | -725.9% | -8,326.7% | -8,341.0% | -385.0% | -464.9% | -21.1% |
| Free cash flow | -18.1 m | -27.3 m | -25.6 m | -105.0 m | -128.4 m | -108.2 m | -108.5 m | -43.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 81.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 164.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 83.6 m USD
- Equity
- 466.3 m USD
- Total assets
- 718.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- 1.82x
- ROE
- -7.1%
- ROA
- -5.2%
- FCF margin
- -27.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.5 m | 711.0 k | 1.2 m | 17.2 m | 16.9 m | 160.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 15.0 m | 7.7 m | 8.7 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 85.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | -9.5 m | -11.5 m | -7.5 m ≈ | 5.2 m ≈ | 4.9 m ≈ | 75.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 3.5 m | 6.8 m | 7.4 m | 6.6 m | 5.6 m | 4.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 11.2 m | 25.5 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2022verified |
| Operating income | -27.0 m | -60.3 m | -102.7 m | -81.8 m | -90.8 m | -20.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.9 m | 5.1 m | 7.9 m | 19.0 m | 18.3 m | 25.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -21.1 m ≈ | -55.1 m ≈ | -94.8 m ≈ | -62.8 m ≈ | -72.5 m ≈ | 5.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.1 m | 251.0 k | 1.2 m | 2.2 m | 3.9 m | 17.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2021verified |
| Net income | -40.2 m | -59.2 m | -98.0 m | -66.2 m | -78.6 m | -33.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -0.30 | -0.44 | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 195.8 m | 221.5 m | 238.7 m | 231.7 m | 234.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 78.3 m | 40.8 m | 237.1 m | 298.3 m | 189.4 m | 81.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 527.0 k | 978.0 k | 476.0 k | 2.6 m | 2.4 m | 8.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.5 m | 2.8 m | 6.3 m | 3.8 m | 4.5 m | 19.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 83.3 m | 348.5 m | 415.4 m | 386.4 m | 203.7 m | 143.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 66.4 m | 137.7 m | 185.2 m | 211.6 m | 221.6 m | 353.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | 3.7 m | 43.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 114.0 k | 8.9 m | 7.7 m | 6.5 m | 8.1 m | 95.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 152.1 m | 645.4 m | 700.7 m | 650.3 m | 583.9 m | 718.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.9 m | 4.8 m | 5.0 m | 2.7 m | 539.0 k | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 807.0 k | 158.0 k | 159.0 k | 68.1 m | 21.0 k | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 447.0 k | 66.8 m | 67.4 m | 21.0 k | 67.1 m | 164.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.9 m | 29.1 m | 25.4 m | 91.4 m | 24.4 m | 78.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.7 m | 98.1 m | 95.3 m | 92.9 m | 94.5 m | 247.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 146.4 m † | 547.3 m † | 605.5 m † | 557.4 m † | 489.5 m † | 466.3 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -19.3 m | -48.3 m | -44.3 m | -53.7 m | -57.4 m | -13.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.2 m | 56.8 m | 84.1 m | 54.5 m | 51.1 m | 30.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -25.6 m ≈ | -105.0 m ≈ | -128.4 m ≈ | -108.2 m ≈ | -108.5 m ≈ | -43.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.9 m | -411.4 m | 85.1 m | 114.1 m | -51.8 m | -226.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 87.3 m | 517.3 m | 138.6 m | -189.0 k | -7.4 m | 97.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | 4.7 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 316.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -31.7% | 20 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -119.9% | 5 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 415.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -8.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -17.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality14/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GEVO, INC. (GEVO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 160.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 849.3%; net margin -119.9%; ROE -57.0%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 415.1%
- Current ratio: 2.7x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -31.7%
- Net margin: -119.9%
- Interest coverage: -8.8x
- FCF yield: -17.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −39% / +1% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GEVO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gevo is a diversified energy company that develops and operates renewable fuel, chemical and carbon management facilities, mainly for sectors that are hard to electrify such as aviation. The company is at a turning point: in the second quarter of 2026 it recorded a non-cash impairment of 176 million USD 3, and its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook was raised to more than 60 million USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a patent portfolio and proprietary know-how for the ATJ process, combined with an operating low-carbon ethanol plant in North Dakota 2.
- Monetizing tax credits and carbon attributes provides a cash flow source that could support current operations 3.
- Verity offers carbon accounting and verification capabilities that could also be marketed to third parties 2.
Weaknesses
- The company has a history of net losses and a large accumulated deficit, and profitability is not assured in the near term 1.
- Project development depends on third-party project-level financing, which introduces delay risk 1.
- Reliance on a few facilities and on one main feedstock increases exposure to operating and price swings 13.
Opportunities
- The planned North Dakota expansion and CCS projects could significantly increase low-carbon ethanol volumes 3.
- Canada's new CFR regulation opens an additional compliance market for low-carbon ethanol 3.
- A franchise licensing model for the ATJ platform could generate revenue without direct investment in every project 2.
Risks
- Recurring net losseshigh
The company has not achieved sustained profitability and expects losses to continue, which may limit its ability to fund projects 1.
- Additional financing requiredhigh
ATJ project development depends on third-party capital; if it is not available on acceptable terms, projects could be delayed or scaled back 1.
- Asset and goodwill impairmenthigh
The company recorded a significant non-cash impairment related to the ATJ-60 project and non-core activities, and further impairments could follow if assumptions change 3.
- Feedstock price volatilitymedium
Corn and other feedstock prices directly affect production costs and the ability to pass increases on to customers 1.
- Dependence on environmental creditsmedium
A decline in RFS, LCFS or other carbon credit values could materially affect results and cash flow 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook was raised significantly, and carbon credit revenue plus the Canada CFR could support an improvement in cash flow 3.
- The North Dakota platform and the planned expansion could become a strategic asset with greater capacity and integrated CCS 3.
- The ATJ patent portfolio and licensing model could generate recurring revenue if projects reach commercial operation 2.
What would break the thesis
- The company has not achieved profitability and relies on external financing for growth projects, which could delay its objectives 1.
- The recent impairment on the ATJ-60 project shows that project development can produce significant losses if economic assumptions do not hold 3.
- Revenue depends heavily on tax credits and carbon mechanisms, and regulatory changes could substantially reduce these flows 13.
What to watch
- Revenue contribution from the new Canada CFR market and third-quarter resultsQ3 2026
- Achievement of the target to monetize more than 70 million USD of 45Z credits2026
- Progress of discussions with DOE on modifying the ATJ-30 project scope and financing terms2026
- Progress of the North Dakota expansion and debottlenecking startup2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gevo describes itself as a project development, investment and technology company that also holds certain operating assets intended to generate cash flow 1. Its main focus is renewable hydrocarbon fuels, especially sustainable aviation fuel produced through the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) process, with carbon abatement value monetized through RINs, state credits, IRA tax credits and voluntary credits 1. Gevo North Dakota, acquired in January 2025 for 210 million USD 2, is the main operating platform supplying low-carbon ethanol and supporting the ATJ strategy 2.
Besides ethanol, the company produces renewable natural gas (RNG) at a facility in Northwest Iowa, whose revenue comes mainly from the sale of environmental attributes 1. Through its Verity subsidiary, Gevo provides carbon accounting services and a digital measure, report and verify platform 13. The company is listed on Nasdaq under the symbol GEVO 2.
Gevo states it was founded in 2005 as a Delaware corporation and describes its mission as providing solutions for transportation sectors that are difficult to decarbonize 2. The current strategy includes growing low-carbon ethanol output, expanding the North Dakota site and developing the ATJ-30 SAF project 3.
Segments
Gevo North Dakota (ethanol and CCS)
The main segment generates revenue from ethanol, co-products and carbon removal credits, and debottlenecking could raise output by roughly 10–15%, including 75 million gallons per year of low-carbon ethanol starting in 2027 3. The planned expansion could double capacity to about 150 million gallons per year, with startup targeted in 2028 3.
Market context
Gevo targets sustainable aviation fuel, specialty fuels, renewable gasoline and diesel blendstocks and renewable chemicals, where emissions are hard to reduce through electrification 1. Demand for SAF is described as large and growing, and the company views the ATJ process as the most economically viable route 2. Revenue mechanisms depend on credits such as RFS, LCFS, Section 45Z and Canada's Clean Fuel Regulations 23.
Section 45Z credits were extended through 2029 under the OBBBA, with credit amounts of up to 1 dollar per gallon for liquid transportation fuels 1. This regulatory framework is a key driver of company revenue, and changes in energy policy could materially alter project economics 1.
Trends
- Section 45Z credits and new rulestailwind
Monetizing 45Z credits is the main target for cash flow support in 2026 3, and Canada's CFR could add a new compliance market 3. If these credits are sold at favorable values, revenue could increase considerably.
- Energy policy and federal financingmixed
The DOE conditional commitment for the 1.6 billion USD loan guarantee was extended to April 2026, and discussions on modifying the ATJ-30 project scope are ongoing 1. Changes in policy priorities could delay or reduce financing.
- Corn and oil price movementsheadwind
Corn and other feedstock costs can affect margins, and a fall in oil prices could reduce the appeal of renewable fuels 1. These variables are difficult to predict.
- Rising demand for sustainable aviation fueltailwind
The company says demand for SAF is large and growing, which could support ATJ projects if financing and production are delivered on time 2.
Competitive position
Gevo operates in a field where SAF, low-carbon ethanol and RNG producers compete for offtake contracts and carbon credits. Gevo's filings name technology partners such as FQT, Axens and Praj, which act more as collaborators than direct competitors 1.
The stated competitive advantage lies in its ATJ patent portfolio, proprietary know-how and ability to license its franchise model, although these strengths depend on project execution 2. Competitive pressure could rise if other producers reach lower SAF costs.
- Fluid Quip Technologies (FQT)
Design partner for ATJ plant architecture, so more a partner than a direct competitor 1.
- Axens North America
Technology partner for area-specific ATJ plant design, as named in Gevo's reporting 1.
- PRAJ Industries
Partner for prefabricated ATJ process modules, with an execution role in Gevo projects 1.
- Other SAF and renewable fuel producers
Companies developing competing sustainable aviation fuel facilities are referred to generically in Gevo's documents, without being named 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report28 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Gevo, Inc. · 05 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Gevo, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Gevo, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.