olivLaw · US equity research
XCF Global, Inc. SAFX
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
XCF Global is one of the few US-listed companies focused mainly on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other renewable fuels, aiming to become a majority SAF producer. It recorded revenue of 20.8 million USD and a gross loss in fiscal 2025, and its Reno plant is still ramping up, so financing and execution will be critical in the coming period.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) stock was 0.10 USD (−5.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 41.0 m USD, beta 2.54, 52-week range 0.10–1.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 690.9 k USD (−89.5% YoY), net income of -14.1 m USD (−112.8% YoY), diluted EPS -0.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 23.4
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.04 – 0.32
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.21 · band width 155.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.31 / 0.36
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.06
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −66.7% | −1.1% | −65.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −72.4% | −0.5% | −71.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −77.8% | +4.4% | −82.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −63.4% | +12.3% | −75.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −87.5% | +13.5% | −101.1 pp | −1.7% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −30.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | 6.6 m | 9.6 m | -16.1 m | 348.7 k | 690.9 k |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 1.7 m | 7.8 m | 6.2 m | 10.6 m | 660.9 k | 414.7 k |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | -1.2 m | 3.3 m | -5.9 m | -312.3 k | 276.2 k |
| Operating income | -3.4 m | -10.0 m | -5.9 m | -34.4 m | -8.6 m | -19.0 m | -10.3 m | -5.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | -6.1 k | — | — | — | — | — |
| Income tax | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | -3.4 m | -12.9 m | -7.5 m | 110.3 m | -12.5 m | -16.3 m | -17.8 m | -14.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | -0.05 | 0.83 | -0.08 | -0.09 ≈ | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| Operating cash flow | -10.6 m ≈ | 6.9 m | -3.3 m | -5.2 m ≈ | -5.2 m ≈ | -4.1 m | -4.3 m | -6.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 6.1 m ≈ | 15.4 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -24.1 m | 74.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 0.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -39.8 m | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 154.9 k USD
- Financial debt
- 124.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 124.0 m USD
- Equity
- 37.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 419.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.30x
- Current ratio
- 0.11x
- ROE
- 187.1%
- ROA
- 19.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 24.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | -3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -21.2 m | -67.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -24.1 m | 74.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 142.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 407.2 k | 154.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 24.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 338.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 m | 27.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 351.7 m | 390.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 354.6 m | 419.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.5 m | 48.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 176.2 k | 176.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 124.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 180.4 m | 249.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 313.2 m | 381.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 41.4 m † | 37.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -11.1 m | -17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 28.7 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -39.8 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -28.9 m | -1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 40.3 m | 19.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 41.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
4% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
XCF GLOBAL, INC. (SAFX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 0 USD in 2025; ROE -246.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 4.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −88% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAFX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
XCF Global is one of the few US-listed companies focused mainly on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other renewable fuels, aiming to become a majority SAF producer. It recorded revenue of 20.8 million USD and a gross loss in fiscal 2025, and its Reno plant is still ramping up, so financing and execution will be critical in the coming period.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company owns a plant already converted to SAF in Reno, along with industrial sites in Florida and North Carolina that could be reused 1.
- A clear focus on SAF, unlike traditional refiners, may attract partners interested in decarbonization 1.
- The modular expansion strategy allows capacity to be added in stages depending on demand and financing 1.
Weaknesses
- The company does not yet have sufficient financing for its business plan and has reported substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern 1.
- Production at Reno has been affected by repeated maintenance downtime, and the plant has not yet reached nameplate SAF capacity 1.
- Revenue is small relative to cost of sales, which produced a gross loss in 2025 1.
Opportunities
- If blending mandates expand, demand for SAF could grow and the company could sign new offtake or tolling contracts 12.
- Rebuilding the idle Florida and North Carolina plants could add capacity if financing becomes available 1.
- The proposed transaction with Southern and DEVS could bring additional assets if definitive agreements are signed 1.
Threats
- Shareholder dilution could increase if financing is raised through share issuance, and the share price could fall 1.
- Changes or withdrawal of federal tax incentives and grants could reduce the economic appeal of projects 1.
- Competition from refiners and other renewable fuel producers could limit market share 1.
Risks
- Going concernhigh
The company has identified conditions that raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, with no committed source of funding beyond the existing equity line 1.
- Reno plant disruptionshigh
Repeated maintenance downtime could delay SAF production and weigh on revenue if problems are not resolved 1.
- Dilution from the Helena equity linehigh
Sales of shares to Helena under the ELOC could substantially dilute existing shareholders, depending on the market price at the time of sale 1.
- Dependence on third-party contractsmedium
The Phillips 66 agreement was cancelled, and the new BGN arrangement depends on execution and terms not yet fully confirmed 2.
- Project execution riskmedium
Construction and reconstruction could be delayed or cost more than estimated, which could affect the expansion plan 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Reno plant reaches nameplate SAF capacity and tolling contracts consolidate, the company could turn existing assets into recurring revenue 12.
- SAF demand supported by regulation and aviation commitments could sustain volume growth if incentives remain in place 1.
- A focus on SAF, if confirmed in execution, could differentiate the company from traditional refiners when attracting partners 1.
What would break the thesis
- Going-concern doubts could force the company to raise financing on unfavourable terms with significant shareholder dilution 1.
- Repeated downtime at Reno and the absence of final plant acceptance could prolong the period without stable SAF output 1.
- Losing the Phillips 66 contract and depending on new agreements could reduce revenue predictability if replacements do not materialise 2.
What to watch
- Return of SAF production to nameplate capacity at New Rise RenoQ2 2026
- Completion of the proposed transaction with Southern and DEVS and its financing terms2026
- Execution of the BGN tolling agreement and volumes processednext quarterly report
- Construction timeline and financing for New Rise Reno 22028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
XCF Global, Inc. (formerly Focus Impact BH3 NewCo) was created through the June 6, 2025 business combination with Legacy XCF, a company founded in January 2023 to invest in renewable energy assets and production facilities 1. The company intends to produce SAF, a synthetic kerosene made from waste and residue feedstocks that can be used in existing aircraft without modification when blended with Jet-A 1. It may also opportunistically produce renewable diesel or bio-based glycerol if market conditions support it 1.
The main operating asset is the New Rise Reno facility in Nevada, acquired in January and February 2025, which was converted to SAF production in October 2024 1. The company has said it could reach nameplate SAF capacity as early as the second quarter of 2026, but this depends on final plant acceptance, which has not yet been completed 1. XCF also owns dormant biodiesel plants in Fort Myers (Florida) and Wilson (North Carolina), which it is evaluating for reconstruction 1.
The business model aims at full integration, from feedstock supply to marketing and sales of SAF to offtake partners such as energy companies, fuel distributors, airlines or fixed-base operators 1. In May 2026 the Phillips 66 agreement was cancelled and the company entered a tolling arrangement with BGN, under which it could process BGN-owned feedstock into SAF and renewable naphtha 2.
Segments
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
SAF is the company's core product, sold neat or blended with Jet-A under ASTM standards 1. The plan includes a second Reno facility, New Rise Reno 2, expected to come online in 2028, with total planned output of 80 million gallons per year by the end of 2028 if projects proceed on time 1.
Renewable diesel and by-products
Renewable diesel and renewable naphtha are by-products of the SAF process; during the ramp-up the company sold renewable diesel to Phillips 66 until that agreement was cancelled in May 2026 12. Bio-based glycerol is mentioned as a possible product but has not been reported as a separate activity 1.
Market context
Demand for SAF is supported by regulation and airline commitments, including the ICAO net-zero goal for 2050 and the European Union minimum blending schedule 1. In the US, tax credits and grant programs could support demand and supply growth, but SAF prices remain above conventional jet fuel because of production costs and limited sustainable feedstock 1.
Support policies can be changed or revoked, and the timing of capacity gains will depend on access to financing and on construction execution, which makes market development uncertain for a company still in development 1.
Trends
- SAF blending mandates in the EU and UStailwind
Minimum blending schedules and incentive programs could create structural demand for SAF if they are maintained 1.
- Aviation decarbonization commitmentstailwind
ICAO targets and pressure from airlines support long-term demand, but commitments could evolve 1.
- SAF priced above fossil jet fuelheadwind
Higher production costs and lack of sustainable feedstock could limit margins if the price gap persists 1.
- Uncertainty on fiscal incentivesmixed
Federal credits and grants can be changed or withdrawn, which could affect project economics 1.
Competitive position
XCF presents itself as one of the few publicly traded US companies focused on SAF, distinguishing itself from peers that are mainly legacy crude oil refiners 1. Competition includes both renewable fuel producers and refineries that could convert their capacity 1.
The stated competitive advantage is access to an already converted Reno facility and a modular expansion strategy, but the lack of funding and operating delays could weaken this position 12.
- Phillips 66PSX
Partner under the former renewable diesel offtake agreement, cancelled in May 2026, and a potential competitor through its refineries 12.
- BGN
International energy and commodities group with which the company entered a tolling arrangement in May 2026 to process feedstock into SAF 2.
- US crude oil refiners
Companies that can convert refining capacity to SAF production, described by XCF as its main peers 1.
- Renewable fuel producers
Companies producing SAF and renewable fuels from waste and residues in the same market niche 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement26 Oct 2026
- Current report23 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.03 · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Oct 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Sept 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Sept 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Sept 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / XCF Global, Inc. · 31 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / XCF Global, Inc. · 17 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.