olivLaw · US equity research
REX American Resources Corporation REX
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
REX American Resources is a company that invests in corn-based ethanol production, holding stakes in six plants through three entities, two of which it consolidates. The company currently benefits from 45Z clean fuel tax credits, and its profit rose markedly in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which makes margin trends and biofuel policy especially relevant. Revenue of $168.5 million in the second quarter of 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, REX American Resources Corporation (REX) stock was 39.60 USD (+0.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 10.5 on diluted EPS of 3.77 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.48, 52-week range 31.69–51.16 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 168.5 m USD (+6.3% YoY), net income of 40.6 m USD (+335.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 37.34 – 43.69
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 15.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 41.82 / 42.59
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.98 / -0.93
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.8% | −1.1% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.2% | −0.5% | −9.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.5% | +4.4% | −21.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.5% | +12.3% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +24.7% | +13.5% | +11.2 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +107.2% | +76.4% | +30.8 pp | −33.8% |
| 5 years | +141.8% | +63.7% | +78.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 174.9 m | 158.2 m | 158.3 m | 158.6 m | 175.6 m | 158.0 m | 156.5 m | 168.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 135.2 m | 140.7 m | 144.0 m | 144.2 m | 139.5 m | 129.0 m | 135.0 m | 133.6 m |
| Gross profit | 39.7 m | 17.6 m | 14.3 m | 14.3 m | 36.1 m | 28.9 m | 29.1 m | 53.3 m |
| SG&A | 8.4 m | 6.2 m | 5.9 m | 6.2 m | 8.2 m | 12.3 m | 9.7 m | 15.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.6 m | 3.5 m | 3.5 m | 5.8 m | 6.0 m | 4.3 m | 4.5 m | 6.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 39.5 m | 17.9 m | — | — | 35.5 m | — | — | — |
| Income tax | 9.4 m | 3.8 m | 3.0 m | 2.8 m | 8.0 m | -20.2 m | 4.4 m | 7.5 m |
| Net income | 30.1 m | 14.1 m | 10.7 m | 9.3 m | 27.5 m | 47.6 m | 21.7 m | 40.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.69 | 0.40 ≈ | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.71 | 1.44 ≈ | 0.56 | 1.06 |
| Operating cash flow | 33.4 m ≈ | 25.1 m | -3.5 m | 16.3 m ≈ | 51.2 m ≈ | 53.8 m | -2.1 m | 40.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 15.2 m ≈ | 15.9 m | 6.9 m | 22.0 m ≈ | 26.7 m ≈ | 12.8 m | 11.6 m | 23.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 32.7 m | 712.0 k ≈ | 0 ≈ | 1.0 k | 0 | 1.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 14-quarter history (min 2.8, median 9.9, max 20.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 486.7 m | 417.7 m | 372.7 m | 774.8 m | 855.0 m | 833.4 m | 642.5 m | 650.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | +7.5% | −14.2% | −10.8% | +107.9% | +10.4% | −2.5% | −22.9% | +1.2% |
| Net income | 31.6 m | 7.4 m | 3.0 m | 52.4 m | 27.7 m | 60.9 m | 71.5 m | 95.1 m |
| Net income YoY | −20.3% | −76.5% | −59.6% | +1,644.9% | −47.1% | +120.0% | +17.3% | +33.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 1.18 | 0.49 | 2.92 | 1.57 | 1.73 | 1.65 | 2.50 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −58.5% | +495.9% | −46.2% | +10.2% | −4.6% | +51.5% |
| net % | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% |
| Free cash flow | 37.2 m | 6.6 m | -1.8 m | 86.6 m | 39.2 m | 90.3 m | -7.1 m | 49.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 188.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 702.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 797.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 5.94x
- ROE
- 14.1%
- ROA
- 12.5%
- FCF margin
- 7.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 372.7 m | 774.8 m | 855.0 m | 833.4 m | 642.5 m | 650.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 353.1 m | 684.2 m | 806.4 m | 735.2 m | 551.0 m | 556.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 19.5 m | 90.6 m | 48.6 m | 98.2 m | 91.5 m | 93.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 17.6 m | 21.5 m | 22.8 m | 29.4 m | 27.1 m | 32.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.1 m | 18.0 m | 18.0 m | 17.8 m | 15.9 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.2 m | 75.8 m | 47.5 m | 98.5 m | 92.9 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2025verified |
| Income tax | -546.0 k | 19.0 m | 9.5 m | 22.6 m | 21.4 m | -6.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.0 m | 52.4 m | 27.7 m | 60.9 m | 71.5 m | 95.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.49 | 2.92 | 1.57 | 1.73 | 1.65 | 2.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 6.2 m | 17.9 m | 17.6 m | 35.2 m | 35.3 m | 33.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 144.5 m | 229.8 m | 69.6 m | 223.4 m | 196.3 m | 188.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 19.7 m | 25.8 m | 25.2 m | 23.2 m | 21.5 m | 14.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 37.4 m | 42.2 m | 48.7 m | 27.0 m | 31.7 m | 28.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 258.8 m | 345.2 m | 372.6 m | 452.1 m | 435.8 m | 447.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 150.9 m | 137.6 m | 135.5 m | 155.6 m | 210.7 m | 272.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 479.3 m | 550.4 m | 579.6 m | 664.8 m | 720.0 m | 797.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 30.7 m | 50.5 m | 54.6 m | 66.3 m | 50.4 m | 75.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 437.2 m | 487.6 m | 511.0 m | 587.6 m | 643.6 m | 702.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.6 m | 91.7 m | 54.8 m | 128.0 m | 64.2 m | 117.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 10.4 m | 5.1 m | 15.6 m | 37.7 m | 71.3 m | 68.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.8 m ≈ | 86.6 m ≈ | 39.2 m ≈ | 90.3 m ≈ | -7.1 m ≈ | 49.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -20.8 m | 5.3 m | -198.5 m | 28.4 m | -72.9 m | -87.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -22.4 m | -11.1 m | -17.0 m | -4.3 m | -18.5 m | -37.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 19.6 m | 6.6 m | 13.0 m | 0 | 14.7 m | 33.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 26.11 – 57.18 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E26.11 – 57.18 (Mid 48.56)7 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 6.9x – 15.2xALTO, GPRE, LNZA, LYB, NEU, SXT, WLKP
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 20.9% | 95 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 49.9% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -8.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 16.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 6.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.5x | 67 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.1% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality62/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
REX AMERICAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (REX). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 650.5 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 1.2%; net margin 20.9%; ROE 22.5%.
The estimated value range is 26.11–57.18 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 48.56 USD, the price of 39.60 USD leaves a potential of 22.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 18.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 20.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 16.8%
- Current ratio: 6.9x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 49.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +25% / +107% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for REX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 23.25 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 41.31 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 62.52 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 18.46 Total return -53% · Per year -22% | 37.29 Total return -6% · Per year -2% | 62.52 Total return 58% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 14.66 Total return -63% · Per year -18% | 33.65 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 62.52 Total return 58% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 9.32
- Net margin± 6.53
- Annual revenue growth± 5.89
- Annual dilution± 0.55
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
REX American Resources is a company that invests in corn-based ethanol production, holding stakes in six plants through three entities, two of which it consolidates. The company currently benefits from 45Z clean fuel tax credits, and its profit rose markedly in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which makes margin trends and biofuel policy especially relevant. Revenue of $168.5 million in the second quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a strong balance sheet with no bank debt and high liquidity, which gives it flexibility for investment 3. It has a record of consecutive profitable quarters and benefits from significant tax credits 3.
- Majority stakes in One Earth and NuGen give it operational control over key assets 1. Diversification across several plants reduces exposure to any single site 1.
- Long experience in the ethanol industry and relationships with local farmer groups support the development of projects 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends heavily on volatile corn and ethanol prices, which makes results hard to forecast 1. The company cannot predict margins for more than four months ahead 1.
- REX's effective share of the Big River plants' volumes is small, which limits the benefit from production gains 1.
- The carbon sequestration project depends on many government approvals, and permitting delays have raised potential costs 1.
Opportunities
- If the sequestration project succeeds, the company could earn additional 45Q credits and significantly reduce the carbon footprint of its ethanol 12.
- Expanding the One Earth plant could increase output and, with it, the gains from tax credits, if the plan is carried out 2.
- Wider sales of E-15 and blends with a higher ethanol content could open markets beyond federal mandate levels 1.
Threats
- Changes to tax policy or final rules for the 45Z credits could significantly reduce profitability 2.
- Trade restrictions and tariffs could limit exports of ethanol and by-products to important markets 1.
- A decline in gasoline demand driven by electric vehicles could shrink the ethanol market over the long term 1.
Risks
- Volatility of corn and ethanol priceshigh
The crush spread can fluctuate sharply, and a prolonged negative margin could lead to temporary plant shutdowns 1.
- Dependence on 45Z tax creditshigh
A significant part of recent profit comes from 45Z credits, and any change to the final rules could affect results 2.
- Carbon sequestration project riskmedium
Obtaining final permits and state approvals is uncertain, and costs could rise if further delays occur 12.
- Trade policy and tariffsmedium
Retaliatory trade measures could reduce international demand for ethanol and distillers grains, which could pressure prices 1.
- Litigation over EPA mandatesmedium
Unresolved legal challenges and pending exemption petitions could change the volume of ethanol required in the market 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Record quarterly profit and a balance sheet with no bank debt suggest the company can fund its expansion projects from its own resources 3.
- The 45Z credits have supported strong margins and could keep supporting results through 2029 if the rules stay favourable 12.
- If the carbon sequestration project starts operating, the company could add a revenue stream from 45Q credits 1.
What would break the thesis
- Recent results depend heavily on tax credits, and without them the underlying margins could be much more modest 3.
- The ethanol industry has surplus capacity, which could keep prices under pressure even during periods of strong demand 1.
- The shift to electric vehicles and trade restrictions could reduce demand over the long term, affecting the whole growth strategy 1.
What to watch
- The EPA's final decision on the Class VI permits for the One Earth sequestration project2026
- The Treasury's final rules for 45Z credits and their contribution to profit2026
- Completion and start-up of the One Earth expansion to 175 million gallonsfiscal 2026
- Trends in the crush spread and corn and ethanol prices in the coming quartersQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Revenue depends largely on the crush spread, meaning the difference between ethanol and corn prices, as well as on by-products such as distillers grains and distillers corn oil 1. For fiscal 2025 the company reported net income attributable to REX common shareholders of approximately $83.0 million, compared with $58.2 million a year earlier, supported by higher crush spreads and a lower effective tax rate from 45Z credits 1. For the second quarter of fiscal 2026 REX reported net income attributable to its shareholders of $34.9 million 3.
The carbon sequestration and plant expansion projects at One Earth in Gibson City, Illinois are central to the growth strategy, since they could allow the company to also claim 45Q credits if the sequestration project succeeds 12. The One Earth plant has a construction permit to increase output from 150 to 175 million gallons per year, and the company intends to seek a further permit for 200 million gallons 2.
Segments
Consolidated ethanol entities
The One Earth (Gibson City, Illinois) and NuGen (Marion, South Dakota) plants are consolidated in REX's financial statements because the company exercises operational control over them 13. The remaining stakes, through Big River Resources, are accounted for as equity-method investments 3.
Big River Resources stakes
Big River Resources owns four ethanol plants, and REX holds minority stakes in each, so income from this activity appears as equity in income of unconsolidated affiliates 13. This structure reduces direct exposure to operating costs but limits the company's control over operating decisions 1.
Market context
According to the RFA, the US ethanol industry produced an estimated 16.4 billion gallons in 2025, compared with 16.1 billion gallons in 2024, and industry capacity is approximately 18.5 billion gallons 1. Exports reached an estimated 2.2 billion gallons, with Canada the main destination, which makes the market sensitive to trade tariffs 1. Domestic demand depends heavily on federal mandates, with the EPA setting conventional volumes of 15.0 billion gallons for 2026 and 2027 1.
Prices are volatile: in fiscal 2025 corn ranged from a low of $3.72 per bushel to a high of $5.02 per bushel, and ethanol from $1.50 to $2.09 per gallon 1. These swings explain why the company's results can fluctuate substantially from one quarter to the next 1.
Trends
- 45Z and 45Q tax creditstailwind
The 45Z clean fuel production credit substantially lifted profit in fiscal 2025 and in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and the OBBBA extended its availability through 2029 12. If the sequestration project succeeds, the company could also qualify for the 45Q credit 1. Changes to the proposed regulations could, however, adjust the estimates of income recognized 2.
- Biofuel mandates and EPA rulemakingmixed
The RFS II and the volumes set by the EPA underpin demand for corn-based ethanol, but in recent years numerous small refinery exemptions have been issued and many petitions remain pending 1. Ongoing legal challenges could change the actual level of demand 1.
- Shift toward electric vehiclesheadwind
Announced phase-outs of internal combustion engine production and bans in some countries could, over the long term, reduce gasoline demand and therefore ethanol demand 1. The impact depends on how quickly electric vehicles are adopted, which remains uncertain 1.
- Trade tariffs and ethanol exportsheadwind
Tariff threats and possible retaliation by trading partners could reduce exports of ethanol and distillers grains, which could put pressure on US prices 1. Exports to Canada and Mexico are particularly important for these products 1.
Competitive position
REX competes in the corn-based ethanol market with many US producers, and the industry as a whole comprises 198 plants across 24 states 1. The company's advantage lies in its diversified set of stakes and its ability to benefit from tax credits, not in a dominant market share 1. Competition is driven largely by the cost of corn and natural gas, which industry players may negotiate on different terms 1.
Producers of renewable diesel and biodiesel compete for the same lipid feedstocks and for distillers corn oil, which can influence by-product prices 1. Lower-carbon-intensity alternatives could be preferred, affecting demand for REX's oil 1.
- Green Plains Inc.GPRE
US ethanol producer named in the sources as a direct industry competitor; the filings used here give no comparative financial detail.
- Alto Ingredients, Inc.ALTO
US specialty ethanol producer competing in the same market with similar feedstock.
- Other producers in the Big River Resources group
The entity in which REX holds minority stakes also competes directly with other plants in the region.
- Renewable diesel and biodiesel producers
They compete for distillers corn oil and other low-carbon-intensity feedstocks, influencing by-product prices.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- REX American Resources (REX) Notches A Record Quarter, Then Doubts Creep InYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- REX American Resources (REX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- REX American Resources Corporation Q2 2027 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- REX American Resources Q2 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- REX American Resources Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Sept 2026
- Current report02 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report02 Jun 2026
- Current report28 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement15 Apr 2026
- Annual report30 Mar 2026
- Current report26 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / REX American Resources Corporation · 30 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / REX American Resources Corporation · 03 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / REX American Resources Corporation · 02 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.