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olivLaw · US equity research

LanzaTech Global, Inc. LNZA

Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)

5.29USD+4.13% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

LanzaTech is a technology company that turns industrial waste gases into ethanol and other chemicals through gas fermentation, using a licensing and co-development model. The company remains loss-making, but in 2026 it cut costs and reinstated financial guidance, while its latest annual report flagged substantial doubt about going concern. Annual revenue for fiscal 2025 was 55.845 million USD, and the net loss was 49.0 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) stock was 5.29 USD (+4.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 69.2 m USD, P/E 0.4 on diluted EPS of 14.99 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.50, 52-week range 4.45–41.42 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 9.0 m USD (−0.8% YoY), net income of 184.3 m USD, diluted EPS 15.81 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
69.2 m USD
shares as of 10 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
0.4
Diluted EPS TTM 14.99 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
283.44%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.50
Volatility (1y) 144%
52-week range
4.4541.42

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
49.7
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.18 – 6.12
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 37.7%
SMA 50 / 200
5.69 / 10.58
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.16 / -0.22
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.5%−1.1%−9.4 pp—
3 months−17.3%−0.5%−16.9 pp—
6 months−76.1%+4.4%−80.5 pp—
Year to date−61.6%+12.3%−73.9 pp—
1 year−72.6%+13.5%−86.1 pp−1.7%
3 years−98.7%+76.4%−175.1 pp−26.4%
5 years−99.5%+63.7%−163.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−89.3%
15 Apr 2026 → 14 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.6%
02 Feb 2023 → 14 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−64.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
9.0 m USD
−0.8% YoY
Net income
184.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
15.81
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2,044.7% / -109.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue9.9 m12.0 m9.5 m9.1 m9.3 m28.0 m12.0 m9.0 m
Research & development22.0 m16.5 m16.5 m14.9 m10.3 m11.5 m4.0 m2.0 m
SG&A11.5 m15.7 m15.7 m19.1 m6.7 m5.5 m8.6 m8.8 m
Operating income-33.0 m-27.0 m-31.1 m-32.2 m-15.7 m-205.0 k-9.8 m-9.9 m
Pre-tax income-51.9 m-20.7 m-12.7 m—————
Income tax00000000
Net income-57.4 m-27.0 m-19.2 m-32.5 m2.9 m-84.0 k-14.7 m184.3 m
Diluted EPS-29.04-13.65 ≈-9.79-14.900.99-0.04 ≈-1.7715.81
Operating cash flow-26.4 m ≈-19.7 m-21.1 m-21.7 m ≈-15.9 m ≈-6.2 m-9.3 m-1.4 m ≈
Capex289.0 k ≈1.8 m713.0 k166.0 k ≈168.0 k ≈211.0 k55.0 k676.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 0.5, median 0.5, max 0.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue37.3 m62.6 m49.6 m55.8 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+67.7%−20.8%+12.6%
Net income-76.4 m-134.1 m-137.7 m-49.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-12.37-0.79-69.71-22.27
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-204.5%-214.1%-277.7%-87.7%
Free cash flow-95.4 m-105.8 m-94.4 m-66.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
13.2 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
-3.9 m USD
Total assets
100.2 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.43x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-35.6%
FCF margin
-118.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
62.6 m
2024
49.6 m
2025
55.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
68.1 m
2024
77.0 m
2025
53.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
50.4 m
2024
50.0 m
2025
47.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-106.4 m
2024
-108.9 m
2025
-79.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-131.2 m
2024
-123.5 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2025verified

Income tax
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-134.1 m
2024
-137.7 m
2025
-49.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.79
2024
-69.71
2025
-22.27

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
176.0 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
75.6 m
2024
43.5 m
2025
13.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.8 m
2024
2.2 m
2025
684.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
172.7 m
2024
99.3 m
2025
39.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
22.8 m
2024
22.3 m
2025
17.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
241.6 m
2024
174.7 m
2025
100.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.1 m
2024
5.3 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
25.2 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
27.8 m
2024
30.4 m
2025
27.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
127.2 m
2024
161.2 m
2025
90.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
114.5 m †
2024
13.4 m †
2025
-3.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
196.6 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-97.3 m
2024
-89.1 m
2025
-64.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
8.6 m
2024
5.3 m
2025
1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-105.8 m ≈
2024
-94.4 m ≈
2025
-66.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-57.9 m
2024
28.4 m
2025
11.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
148.2 m
2024
30.2 m
2025
25.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
14.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-61.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
295.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-58.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
146.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
78.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-32.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-33.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-19.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
69.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
283.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-48.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
-3.04
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

5.29 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 69.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
69.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
146.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
295.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 10 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Aug 2026
verified 563derived 43

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
143.06
USD per share
Mid
193.06
USD per share
High
227.35
USD per share
Price: 5.29 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 3,549.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 97.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 143.06 – 227.35 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E143.06 – 227.35 (Mid 193.06)
    7 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 9.5x – 15.2x
    ALTO, GPRE, LYB, NEU, REX, SXT, WLKP
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality295.7%100 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Quality-19.6%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth14.4%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation0.4x100 (vs peers)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-48.8%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 55.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.6%; net margin 295.7%; ROE 146.4%.

The estimated value range is 143.06–227.35 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 193.06 USD, the price of 5.29 USD leaves a potential of 3,549.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 97.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 295.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.4%
  • Current ratio: 2.5x
  • P/E (TTM): 0.4x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -19.6%
  • FCF yield: -48.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
0.4x
vertical median 14.7x
below median (−97.6%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.6x
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−24.2%)
P/B
0.3x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−83.5%)
ROE
146.4%
vertical median -4.9%
above median
Net margin
295.7%
vertical median -3.9%
above median
EBIT margin
-61.0%
vertical median -3.2%
below median
Revenue YoY
12.6%
vertical median -5.2%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.7x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc22.0 bn122.11.3%1.6%−5.2%+26% / +16%
LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V.20.4 bn15.611.9%4.1%−9.7%+29% / −34%
WLKWestlake Corporation8.7 bn—-4.9%-3.9%−8.0%+2% / −47%
NEUNewmarket Corporation6.7 bn14.725.3%16.5%−2.2%−5% / +37%
SXTSensient Technologies Corp5.4 bn31.713.7%9.7%+3.5%+29% / +117%
MEOHMethanex Corporation5.0 bn70.16.4%4.0%−3.5%+83% / +53%
REXRex American Resources Corporation1.3 bn10.522.5%20.9%+1.2%+20% / +62%
GPREGreen Plains Inc.957.5 m8.615.4%6.8%−14.9%+32% / −45%
WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP761.8 m12.9—4.8%+2.7%+14% / −5%
GEVOGevo, Inc.316.5 m—-57.0%-119.9%+849.3%−40% / +13%
ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.271.5 m5.322.2%5.5%−4.9%+37% / +43%
FFFuturefuel Corp.246.5 m—-18.3%-19.9%−60.7%+70% / −5%
CDXSCodexis, Inc.118.3 m—-69.4%-39.6%+18.6%−38% / −54%
LODEComstock Inc.113.3 m—-38.2%-3,680.5%−48.5%−58% / −68%
AMTXAemetis, Inc90.2 m——-27.4%−26.2%−28% / −72%
TANHTantech Holdings Ltd90.1 m—-25.7%-80.9%−10.7%−76% / −100%
LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc.69.2 m0.4146.4%295.7%+12.6%−73% / −99%
SAFXXcf Global, Inc.41.0 m—-246.1%—unavailable−87% / unavailable
TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc.18.2 m—-168.8%-49.8%−27.2%−6% / −26%
CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc.2.5 m—-11.2%-31.3%−30.2%−65% / −99%
BAKBraskem SA———-14.6%+9.7%−61% / −86%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LNZA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
3.02
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
5.31
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
7.97
Total return 51% · Per year 51%
3 years
3.54
Total return -33% · Per year -13%
6.95
Total return 31% · Per year 10%
11.36
Total return 115% · Per year 29%
5 years
4.15
Total return -22% · Per year -5%
9.09
Total return 72% · Per year 11%
16.18
Total return 206% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 1.74
  • Net margin± 1.22
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.91
  • Annual dilution± 0.10

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

LanzaTech is a technology company that turns industrial waste gases into ethanol and other chemicals through gas fermentation, using a licensing and co-development model. The company remains loss-making, but in 2026 it cut costs and reinstated financial guidance, while its latest annual report flagged substantial doubt about going concern 13. Annual revenue for fiscal 2025 was 55.845 million USD 1, and the net loss was 49.0 million USD 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The gas fermentation platform is validated through commercial plants and years of pilot operation, giving a solid technical base 1.
  • The intellectual property portfolio is broad, and licensed rights reinforce the company's position 1.
  • Costs were cut across 2025 and 2026, and operating expenses in the second quarter fell sharply year on year 3.

Weaknesses

  • The company has not achieved operating profitability and reports substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern 1.
  • Revenue is modest relative to funding needs, and cash at the end of 2025 was low 1.
  • Net income in 2026 is driven by non-cash accounting gains that do not reflect operating cash receipts 23.

Opportunities

  • Recycled-carbon fuel certification could open markets in Europe and the United Kingdom 3.
  • The Belgian SAF project could bring significant annual revenue if it reaches a final investment decision 3.
  • Research partnerships and new technologies could widen the range of feedstocks used 3.

Threats

  • Dependence on government funding and capital market conditions could delay projects 1.
  • Larger competitors with greater resources could launch similar technologies ahead of the company 1.
  • Changes in public policy or mandates could reduce demand for the company's products 1.

Risks

  • Going concern doubthigh

    Management concluded there is substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue operating without additional capital 1.

  • Dilution from share issuancehigh

    Additional funding could involve share or convertible issuances that reduce existing shareholders' stakes 1.

  • Delays in federal fundingmedium

    Delays in government funds could postpone projects and related revenue, especially in earlier cohorts 13.

  • No operating profitabilitymedium

    The company has not reached operating profit and cannot guarantee when or whether it will become profitable 1.

  • Dependence on partnerslow

    Royalty revenue depends on partners' product prices, and losing partners could affect scaling 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If first-cohort projects reach financing, recurring revenue could grow and reduce reliance on external funding 13.
  • ISCC EU certification could open mandated markets, giving CarbonSmart ethanol access to regulated demand 3.
  • Lower operating costs could move the company closer to financial balance if revenue rises in line with guidance 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Going concern doubts could discourage financiers and partners, delaying projects 1.
  • Non-cash accounting gains on the SGLT and LanzaJet stakes do not reflect operating cash receipts and can be volatile 23.
  • If government funding is delayed or European mandates do not materialise, revenue could stay below expectations 13.

What to watch

  • Delivery against 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidanceQ3 2026
  • Final investment decision on the Belgian SAF project2027
  • ISCC EU certification of recycled carbon fuels in China2027
  • New equity or financing that could ease going-concern doubtsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

LanzaTech, headquartered in Skokie, Illinois, develops carbon management technologies that convert waste gases into fuels, chemicals and industrial inputs 1. Its gas fermentation platform uses specialised microbes to turn gases from steel mills, refineries or gasified waste into ethanol and derivatives such as SAF, ethylene or PET 1. The company earns revenue through licences, supply sales, engineering services and co-development projects where it holds a minority stake 1.

The business model combines royalties, microbe supply and software with co-owned projects, and the company is gradually expanding its stake in the biorefining value chain 12. In 2025 it moved from one-off projects to a cohort model that groups projects by maturity and financing readiness 1. Recurring revenue rose in 2025 to 20.954 million USD 1.

The platform has been validated commercially through six plants, the first launched in China in 2018, with further facilities in India and Belgium 1. The company also holds a stake in LanzaJet, an SAF firm whose holding was diluted in February 2026 1. Its interest in the SGLT joint venture was remeasured after the Hong Kong listing, producing a non-cash accounting gain in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Segments

Licensing and royalties

Customers build, own and operate plants using LanzaTech technology, and the company collects a royalty on their revenue 2. Recurring revenue, including royalties and microbe supply, reached 20.954 million USD in 2025 1.

Co-development and engineering services

In co-developed projects the company usually holds a minority stake, and engineering services revenue rose in the second quarter of 2026 on new projects 13. Joint development agreement revenue fell as existing projects were completed 3.

CarbonSmart and products

CarbonSmart revenue was 3.8 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, flat year on year 3. The company is pursuing ISCC EU certification for recycled carbon fuels, which could open regulated European markets 3.

Market context

The target market is carbon capture and utilisation technology, where industrial operators look to unlock value from existing assets and secure supply chains 1. The company describes energy security, industrial resilience and supportive tax frameworks in key markets as favourable for deployment 1.

The market for sustainable aviation fuel and recycled fuels in Europe depends on the regulatory framework, and the company could benefit if mandates expand 3. The company says waste carbon feedstocks are abundant and low-cost, but realising that potential depends on project financing 1.

Trends

  • Public policy on energy and industrytailwind

    A federal emphasis on energy leadership and industrial competitiveness could create demand for CCU technologies that use domestic resources 1.

  • Sustainable fuel mandates in Europetailwind

    ISCC EU certification could open mandated markets for CarbonSmart ethanol if carbon tracing standards are accepted 3.

  • Delays in government fundingheadwind

    Projects tied to Department of Energy programmes could be postponed if federal funding is delayed, pushing revenue later 1.

  • Access to capitalmixed

    Reliance on external funding and dilution from new share issuance could limit the pace of development, although the company raised capital in 2026 12.

Competitive position

The company says it does not view any single firm as a direct competitor across its whole business, but some companies overlap in feedstocks, products, synthetic biology or commercial scale 1. Competitors could have greater financial, research or marketing resources 1.

Competitive risk rises if more investors fund carbon circular economy technologies, and rivals could launch products without prior notice 1. The company argues that no other firm currently delivers all of its capabilities in an integrated way 1.

  • Firms overlapping in feedstocks and products

    Companies cited generically in the annual report as overlapping in feedstocks and products, not named in the sources provided.

  • Synthetic biology firms

    Synthetic biology competitors mentioned in the report as having experience in similar process design.

  • Thermocatalytic process providers

    Traditional catalytic technologies are described by the company as an alternative to gas fermentation.

  • SAF and waste-based fuel producers

    Companies producing sustainable aviation fuel from similar feedstocks, referred to generically in the SAF market context.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / LanzaTech Global, Inc. · 31 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / LanzaTech Global, Inc. · 14 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / LanzaTech Global, Inc. · 14 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.