olivLaw · US equity research
NewMarket Corporation NEU
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
NewMarket Corporation (NYSE: NEU) is a holding company whose subsidiaries make additives for lubricants and fuels through Afton Chemical and specialty materials for aerospace and defense through AMPAC and Calca. The company remains profitable and generates cash, while its specialty materials segment grows and petroleum additive sales eased slightly in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NewMarket Corporation (NEU) stock was 725.11 USD (−3.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.7 bn USD, P/E 14.7 on diluted EPS of 49.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.65%, beta 0.56, 52-week range 584.66–961.92 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 716.5 m USD (+3.8% YoY), net income of 124.1 m USD (+23.8% YoY), diluted EPS 13.50 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 13.2
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 744.82 – 963.45
- below the lower band · %B -0.09 · band width 25.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 880.96 / 764.08
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -36.10 / -19.45
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −21.6% | −1.1% | −20.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.8% | −0.5% | −17.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.3% | +4.4% | +0.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.5% | +12.3% | −6.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −6.0% | +13.5% | −19.5 pp | −2.1% |
| 3 years | +47.9% | +76.4% | −28.5 pp | −33.8% |
| 5 years | +114.6% | +63.7% | +51.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 654.6 m | 700.9 m | 698.5 m | 690.3 m | 635.4 m | 669.7 m | 747.1 m | 716.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 447.0 m | 464.9 m | 477.6 m | 480.7 m | 444.6 m | 448.8 m | 504.7 m | 494.1 m |
| Gross profit | 207.7 m | 236.0 m | 221.0 m | 209.6 m | 190.8 m | 220.9 m | 242.4 m | 222.4 m |
| Research & development | 32.8 m | 33.2 m | 32.4 m | 35.0 m | 31.5 m | 31.6 m | 30.4 m | 30.5 m |
| SG&A | 42.1 m | 43.0 m | 45.4 m | 43.9 m | 49.2 m | 46.0 m | 48.4 m | 48.9 m |
| Operating income | 132.8 m | 159.9 m | 143.2 m | 130.7 m | 110.0 m | 143.2 m | 163.7 m | 142.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 32.1 m | 28.8 m | 28.5 m | 33.1 m | 32.1 m | 31.7 m | 31.8 m | 31.2 m |
| Interest expense | 11.6 m | 10.7 m | 10.7 m | 8.4 m | 9.9 m | 8.8 m | 8.8 m | 8.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 134.2 m | 164.1 m | 147.7 m | 135.6 m | 113.2 m | 151.7 m | 170.3 m | 151.1 m |
| Income tax | 23.5 m | 38.2 m | 36.4 m | 35.3 m | 31.9 m | 33.6 m | 36.6 m | 27.0 m |
| Net income | 110.7 m | 125.9 m | 111.2 m | 100.3 m | 81.3 m | 118.1 m | 133.8 m | 124.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 11.60 ≈ | 13.26 | 11.84 | 10.67 | 8.68 ≈ | 12.62 | 14.54 | 13.50 |
| Operating cash flow | 185.2 m | 120.3 m | 161.1 m ≈ | 142.4 m ≈ | 145.2 m | 124.0 m | 162.1 m ≈ | 68.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 14.6 m | 13.0 m | 21.6 m | 30.1 m | 28.0 m | 24.4 m | 27.4 m ≈ | 36.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 23.9 m | 26.1 m | 25.8 m ≈ | 25.8 m ≈ | 28.2 m | 28.0 m | 27.6 m ≈ | 27.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 31.9 m | 57.1 m | 20.2 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 125.6 m | 861.0 k ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 58 percentile of its own 19-quarter history (min 10.9, median 13.7, max 19.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.2% | −4.3% | −8.2% | +17.2% | +17.3% | −2.4% | +3.3% | −2.2% |
| Net income | 234.7 m | 254.3 m | 270.6 m | 190.9 m | 279.5 m | 388.9 m | 462.4 m | 418.7 m |
| Net income YoY | +23.2% | +8.3% | +6.4% | −29.4% | +46.4% | +39.1% | +18.9% | −9.4% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 24.64 | 17.71 | 27.77 | 40.44 | 48.22 | 44.44 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −28.1% | +56.8% | +45.6% | +19.2% | −7.8% |
| net % | 10.3% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| Free cash flow | 123.3 m | 277.8 m | 190.8 m | 86.4 m | 52.5 m | 528.5 m | 462.3 m | 491.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 77.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 883.4 m USD
- Net debt
- 805.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.50x
- Current ratio
- 2.53x
- ROE
- 25.8%
- ROA
- 12.6%
- FCF margin
- 18.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 595.0 m | 547.7 m | 640.5 m | 772.5 m | 886.3 m | 857.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 140.4 m | 144.0 m | 140.3 m | 138.0 m | 124.9 m | 132.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 142.9 m | 146.0 m | 145.1 m | 151.5 m | 171.4 m | 181.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 311.8 m | 257.8 m | 355.1 m | 483.0 m | 590.0 m | 543.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 84.0 m | 84.3 m | 82.3 m | 78.0 m | 117.0 m | 122.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 395.8 m ≈ | 342.1 m ≈ | 437.4 m ≈ | 561.1 m ≈ | 707.0 m ≈ | 666.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 26.3 m | 34.2 m | 35.2 m | 37.4 m | 57.4 m | 39.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 331.3 m | 247.6 m | 347.7 m | 489.0 m | 584.1 m | 560.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 60.7 m | 56.6 m | 68.2 m | 100.1 m | 121.7 m | 141.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 270.6 m | 190.9 m | 279.5 m | 388.9 m | 462.4 m | 418.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 24.64 | 17.71 | 27.77 | 40.44 | 48.22 | 44.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 11.0 m | 10.8 m | 10.0 m | 9.6 m | 9.6 m | 9.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 7.60 | 8.00 | 8.40 | 8.85 | 10.00 | 11.25 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 125.2 m | 83.3 m | 68.7 m | 111.9 m | 77.5 m | 77.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 401.0 m | 498.5 m | 631.4 m | 456.2 m | 505.4 m | 502.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 898.1 m | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 665.1 m | 676.8 m | 660.0 m | 654.7 m | 735.4 m | 775.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 189.9 m | 246.1 m | 273.3 m | 231.1 m | 225.9 m | 238.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 349.4 m | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 598.8 m | 789.9 m | 1.0 bn | 643.6 m | 971.3 m | 883.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 312.5 m | 725.1 m | 423.9 m | 364.2 m | 374.5 m | 419.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 759.8 m † | 762.1 m † | 762.4 m † | 1.1 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 284.2 m | 165.3 m | 108.6 m | 576.8 m | 519.6 m | 569.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 93.3 m | 78.9 m | 56.2 m | 48.3 m | 57.3 m | 77.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 190.8 m ≈ | 86.4 m ≈ | 52.5 m ≈ | 528.5 m ≈ | 462.3 m ≈ | 491.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -74.2 m | -461.4 m | 315.9 m | -48.3 m | -738.8 m | -291.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -231.5 m | 255.1 m | -439.4 m | -487.6 m | 185.8 m | -279.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 83.4 m | 85.9 m | 84.3 m | 85.0 m | 95.9 m | 105.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 101.4 m | 196.2 m | 207.5 m | 42.9 m | 31.9 m | 77.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation52
- Balance sheet79
- Quality86
- Growth50
- Returns71
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 296.39 – 1,005.54 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)476.48 – 794.63 (Mid 597.88)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 411.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 7.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA296.39 – 1,005.54 (Mid 423.05)6 companies used · median multiple 6.8x · quartiles 5.1x – 14.6xALTO, GPRE, LYB, MEOH, SXT, WLK
- Peers: P/E341.61 – 703.30 (Mid 518.13)7 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 6.9x – 14.3xALTO, GPRE, LNZA, LYB, REX, SXT, WLKP
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate147.84 – 198.81 (Mid 169.58)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.3% | 90 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.5% | 89 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 83.9% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 57 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 15.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.7x | 44 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.8x | 43 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.7% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.6% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 29.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
NEWMARKET CORPORATION (NEU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.2%; net margin 16.5%; ROE 25.3%; net debt/EBITDA 1.1x.
The estimated value range is 341.61–794.63 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 518.13 USD, the price of 725.11 USD leaves a potential of -28.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -39.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.3%
- Net margin: 16.5%
- FCF conversion: 83.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 17.0%
- Interest coverage: 15.8x
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- FCF yield: 5.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 29.0%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.5%
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −6% / +48% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NEU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 410.22 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 727.06 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 1,097.66 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 359.27 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 720.09 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 1,199.12 Total return 72% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 314.64 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 713.20 Total return 7% · Per year 1% | 1,309.97 Total return 92% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 180.02
- Net margin± 126.02
- Annual revenue growth± 108.63
- Annual dilution± 10.59
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
NewMarket Corporation (NYSE: NEU) is a holding company whose subsidiaries make additives for lubricants and fuels through Afton Chemical and specialty materials for aerospace and defense through AMPAC and Calca. The company remains profitable and generates cash, while its specialty materials segment grows and petroleum additive sales eased slightly in 2025 1 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is among the largest additive suppliers in the world and has long-term relationships with customers in every major region 1.
- A moderate debt load and cash generation beyond operating needs give the company financial flexibility 2 3.
- A leading position in high-purity hydrazine and solid rocket motor materials supports the competitiveness of the specialty materials segment 1 3.
Weaknesses
- Additive sales fell in 2025 because of lower volumes and pricing pressure, which eroded segment profitability 1.
- The specialty materials segment depends on contracts with the U.S. government, which can be reduced or terminated 1.
- Specialty materials quarterly results vary considerably, which makes profitability harder to forecast 2 3.
Opportunities
- Expanded capacity for ammonium perchlorate and hydrazine could increase aerospace and defense revenue if projects finish on schedule 3.
- Developing lubricants for electric vehicles could open new market segments 1.
- Growth in satellite deployment and commercial space programs could support long-term hydrazine demand 1.
Threats
- Disruptions to supply chains or distribution, including from Middle East conflicts, could affect delivery capacity 1 2.
- Competitive pressure and raw material prices could compress margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Changes in emissions regulation and tariff policy could slow demand for existing products 1 2.
Risks
- Dependence on a few large customershigh
Principal customers are multinational oil companies, and the loss of one or a cut in purchases could significantly reduce revenue 1.
- Raw material price volatilityhigh
Sudden or prolonged changes in raw material prices could reduce margins, because not all costs can be passed on to customers 1.
- Government contractsmedium
Defense and space program funding depends on annual appropriations and can be reduced or terminated for convenience, which could affect specialty materials 1.
- Operational and safety risksmedium
Some products are made at a single location, and industrial incidents could halt production and create significant liabilities 1.
- Intellectual property protectionlow
Protection of innovations may be challenged or weaker in some countries, and patent litigation could be costly 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If surcharges and operational efficiency hold, additive profitability could remain steady, supporting the first-half results already reported 3.
- Expanded specialty materials capacity could lift revenue in the defense and space segment, an area with sustained demand 1 3.
- A solid balance sheet and cash generation leave room for dividends, share repurchases and investment 3.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Whether additive surcharges are maintained or reduced and their effect on marginsQ3 2026
- Start-up of the new ammonium perchlorate and hydrazine capacityend of 2026
- Trend in lubricant additive volumes in North America and Asia PacificQ3 2026
- Quarterly results of the specialty materials segment, where variation is expectednext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
NewMarket Corporation is a holding company whose subsidiaries run its operations, among them Afton Chemical, Ethyl Corporation, American Pacific Corporation (AMPAC) and Calca Solutions, LLC 1. Afton manufactures and sells lubricant and fuel additives, Ethyl markets antiknock compounds in North America, and AMPAC and Calca produce materials for solid rocket motors and hydrazine for aerospace and defense 1. For 2025, consolidated net sales were 2.7 billion USD, down 2.2% from 2024 1.
The company was incorporated in Virginia in 2004 and is headquartered in Richmond 1. Its activity is organized into two reportable segments, petroleum additives, represented mainly by Afton, and specialty materials, represented by AMPAC and Calca, while Ethyl's antiknock business sits in the 'All other' category 1. The acquisition of Calca, completed on October 1, 2025, expanded the specialty materials segment 1.
Afton describes its products as highly formulated additive packages sold to integrated oil companies and independent compounders, with no direct sales to original equipment manufacturers or end users 1. The company keeps research, development and testing in-house, and by the end of the first half of 2026 had reduced net debt to 1.0x EBITDA 3.
Segments
Specialty materials
The specialty materials segment, which includes AMPAC and Calca, reported 2025 net sales of 182 million USD, against 141 million USD in 2024, with growth partly from including Calca 1. In the first half of 2026 sales reached 125.3 million USD, and the company announced investments to expand ammonium perchlorate and high-purity hydrazine capacity, with start-up expected towards the end of 2026 3.
Market context
The petroleum additives market is global, with customers ranging from integrated oil companies to national, regional and independent companies 1. Engine oil additives are the largest submarket of lubricant additives, at roughly 70% of market volume 1. The specialty materials market depends on government defense and space programs, with budgets and missile and launch activity as key drivers 1.
Demand for additives is shaped by the number of vehicles, miles driven, fuel economy and emissions regulation 1. For hydrazine, demand is tied to satellite production rates and government and commercial space budgets 1.
Trends
- Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind
The company monitors changes in international trade relations and tariffs, which could cause supply chain disruptions, weaker customer demand or higher costs 2.
- Middle East conflictmixed
Supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East led to surcharges and higher additive selling prices, which supported quarterly profit, but could affect costs and demand if the situation persists 2 3.
- Government defense and space demandtailwind
Demand for ammonium perchlorate and hydrazine depends on defense and space budgets and programs, and expanded production could support the specialty materials segment if those budgets stay high 1 3.
- Shift to electric vehiclesmixed
The company invests in lubricants for electric vehicles, but the transition could reduce demand for some traditional products if adoption accelerates 1.
Competitive position
The company considers itself one of the four largest manufacturers and suppliers in the petroleum additives marketplace 1. In lubricant additives its main competitors are The Lubrizol Corporation, Infineum and Chevron Oronite 1.
The fuel additives market is more fragmented, with competitors such as BASF, Innospec, Clariant and Dorf Ketal, each focused on particular niches 1. Competition could lead to lower prices, which could weigh on margins if pressure increases 1.
- The Lubrizol Corporation
A wholly-owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway and a major competitor in lubricant and fuel additives 1.
- Infineum
A joint venture of ExxonMobil Chemical and Shell, competing in lubricant additives and diesel additives 1.
- Chevron Oronite
Competes in lubricant additives and in the gasoline detergent market 1.
- BASF
Competes in gasoline detergents and in diesel and refinery additives 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report29 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Apr 2026Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report22 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement12 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NewMarket Corporation · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NewMarket Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NewMarket Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.