olivLaw · US equity research
Phoenix Energy One, LLC PHXE-P
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Phoenix Energy One, LLC is an oil and gas company that combines operated drilling through its subsidiary PhoenixOp with the acquisition of mineral rights, royalties and non-operated working interests. Revenue has grown sharply, reaching 687.2 million USD in fiscal 2025, while the company still relies on external financing to support its development plan.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Phoenix Energy One, LLC (PHXE-P) stock was 25.50 USD (+0.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.6 bn USD, P/E 332.2, beta -0.06, 52-week range 20.01–28.66 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 405.9 m USD (+147.7% YoY), net income of 106.0 m USD (+466.8% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 25.10 – 25.77
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.59 · band width 2.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.59 / 24.41
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.08
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.6% | −1.1% | −1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.8% | −0.5% | +5.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.9% | +4.4% | +1.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.7% | +12.3% | +9.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +24.3% | +13.5% | +10.8 pp | +16.2% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +3.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 59.0 m | 101.7 m | 115.7 m | 163.8 m | 189.0 m | 218.6 m | 298.7 m | 405.9 m |
| Cost of revenue | 17.4 m | 23.6 m | 27.1 m | 35.2 m | 42.9 m | 50.0 m | 56.1 m | 51.6 m |
| SG&A | 8.9 m | 7.1 m | 9.5 m | 6.4 m | 5.5 m | 4.6 m | 4.3 m | 2.8 m |
| Operating income | 11.5 m | 25.7 m | 39.2 m | 46.7 m | 46.3 m | 43.4 m | 91.8 m | 163.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.5 m | 32.7 m | 31.2 m | 36.6 m | 45.6 m | 64.5 m | 60.2 m | 74.3 m |
| Interest expense | 26.2 m | 29.1 m | 35.8 m | 37.0 m | 38.8 m | 49.5 m | 52.5 m | 58.3 m |
| Net income | -11.3 m | -13.5 m | 5.6 m | 18.7 m | 8.5 m | 33.3 m | -140.1 m | 106.0 m |
| Operating cash flow | 10.8 m ≈ | 61.0 m | 18.1 m | 82.5 m ≈ | 90.0 m ≈ | 110.5 m | 103.8 m | 173.5 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 118.1 m | 281.2 m | 687.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +138.1% | +144.4% |
| Net income | -16.2 m | -24.8 m | 66.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -13.7% | -8.8% | 9.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 65.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 78.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 17.69x
- Current ratio
- 0.41x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 4.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 118.1 m | 281.2 m | 687.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 19.7 m | 63.9 m | 155.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 98.4 m ≈ | 217.3 m ≈ | 532.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived |
| SG&A | 14.3 m | 29.2 m | 26.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 32.0 m | 72.4 m | 175.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 34.2 m | 86.0 m | 177.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 66.2 m ≈ | 158.4 m ≈ | 353.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 47.9 m | 90.2 m | 161.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -16.2 m | -24.8 m | 66.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.4 m | 120.8 m | 65.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 156.7 m | 173.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 1.0 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 41.8 m | 122.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 103.2 m | 147.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 795.2 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 226.6 m | 418.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -4.8 m | -34.1 m | 78.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.0 m | 101.2 m | 301.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -278.7 m | -437.7 m | -843.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 280.5 m | 451.9 m | 487.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.66 – 17.13 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA5.87 – 17.13 (Mid 13.16)16 companies used · median multiple 5.0x · quartiles 3.7x – 5.6xAPA, AR, CHRD, CRGY, CRK, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MGY, MTDR, OVV, REPX, TALO, VIST, WTI
- Peers: P/E0.66 – 0.96 (Mid 0.72)20 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 8.6x – 12.5xAMPY, APA, AR, CHRD, CNX, CRK, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPRK, INR, MGY, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PR, REPX, TTE, VIST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 21.6% | 83 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.7% | 37 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 4 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 332.2x | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.1x | 6 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet1/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation3/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PHOENIX ENERGY ONE, LLC (PHXE-P). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 687.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 144.4%; net margin 0.7%; ROE 49.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.7x.
The estimated value range is 3.26–9.05 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.94 USD, the price of 25.50 USD leaves a potential of -72.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -267.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 21.6%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.7x
- Interest coverage: 1.7x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- P/E (TTM): 332.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 7.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −28% / +9% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
| ARAntero Resources Corporation | 11.5 bn | 8.4 | 17.6% | 21.7% | +22.0% | +3% / +58% |
| CHRDChord Energy Corporation | 7.2 bn | 8.9 | 10.3% | 13.4% | −7.1% | +41% / −18% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.9 bn | 13.4 | 33.3% | 29.0% | +41.0% | +26% / +101% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 5.5 bn | 13.0 | 20.5% | 28.8% | −0.3% | +1% / +9% |
| CNXCNX Resources Corporation | 5.1 bn | 5.8 | 20.4% | 35.2% | +76.8% | −7% / +72% |
| CRGYCrescent Energy Company | 5.0 bn | 79.8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | +22.1% | +24% / +3% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +1% / −6% |
| CRKComstock Resources, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 7.6 | 21.1% | 23.3% | +77.0% | −50% / +36% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -18.1% | -18.4% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| PHXE-PPhoenix Energy One, LLC | 2.6 bn | 332.2 | 49.7% | 0.7% | +144.4% | +24% / unavailable |
| KOSKosmos Energy Ltd. | 1.3 bn | — | -58.8% | -27.4% | −23.1% | +101% / −67% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 948.6 m | 9.2 | 16.8% | 17.3% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. | 843.0 m | — | -12.1% | -13.0% | +3.7% | −22% / −61% |
| VTSVitesse Energy, Inc. | 618.1 m | — | -7.6% | -15.4% | +13.2% | −31% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PHXE-P from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.66 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 29.33 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 43.99 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 19.77 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 38.78 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 63.34 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 23.44 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 51.29 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 91.21 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 9.70
- Net margin± 6.79
- Annual revenue growth± 5.06
- Annual dilution± 0.57
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Phoenix Energy One, LLC is an oil and gas company that combines operated drilling through its subsidiary PhoenixOp with the acquisition of mineral rights, royalties and non-operated working interests. Revenue has grown sharply, reaching 687.2 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, while the company still relies on external financing to support its development plan 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified business model with royalty, non-operated working interest and operated production revenue, plus a proprietary asset analysis software system 1.
- Rapid recent growth in production and in the number of producing wells in service 2.
- Extensive asset acquisition experience, with a large number of completed transactions since 2019 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Large capital needshigh
The company estimates it will need additional capital to develop its reserves, which might not be available on satisfactory terms 1.
- High indebtednesshigh
Total debt is large, and the terms of its agreements could limit operational flexibility 1.
- Price volatilityhigh
Revenues depend on oil and gas prices, which can fall sharply 1.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Most wells are located in one area, increasing exposure to local risks 1.
- Regulation and environmentmedium
Regulatory changes and environmental requirements could slow permits or increase costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If production and operating revenue growth continue, the company could gradually reduce its debt pressure.
- Direct drilling could deliver better returns than royalty assets alone, if execution stays disciplined.
- The proprietary software could keep identifying attractive assets across more basins.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices fall, revenues and financing capacity could be hit at the same time.
- High debt and the need for additional capital could limit options during difficult periods.
- Geographic concentration could amplify the impact of local problems on production.
What to watch
- Production growth and number of producing wellsQ3 2026
- Debt level and refinancing capacitynext 10-K
- Execution of the 2026 capital plan2026
- Margin trends in the operating segmentQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company runs a three-pronged strategy: direct drilling of operated working interests, acquisition of royalty assets, and acquisition of non-operated working interests, for the exploration, development, production and sale of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids 1. Drilling is focused on the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana and on the Powder River and Denver-Julesburg Basins in Wyoming 1. Operations rely on a proprietary software system used to identify, analyze and manage oil and gas assets 1.
Segments
Operating
The operating segment covers drilling, extraction and production carried out through PhoenixOp and its subsidiary Firebird Services, while sales of operated production are handled by Firebird Marketing 2. In the second quarter of 2026 this segment generated total revenues of 356.2 million USD 2.
Mineral and Non-operating
This segment groups the acquisition of mineral interests and non-operated working interests, through which the company shares in proceeds from resources extracted and sold by the operator 12. Its revenues are smaller and more predictable than those of the operating segment 2.
Market context
Trends
- Production growthtailwind
Production has risen quickly after the start of own drilling, which could support revenues if the pace of execution holds 2.
- Oil pricesheadwind
The business is sensitive to oil and gas prices, and sustained declines could reduce revenues and access to capital 1.
- Cost of capitalheadwind
Higher interest rates, influenced by Federal Reserve policy, could slow the financing of the development plan 1.
- Expansion of own drillingmixed
Shifting toward directly operated drilling could give more control over cash flow, but requires substantially greater investment 1.
Competitive position
The company faces intense competition for extraction and asset acquisitions from entities with greater technical and financial resources, as well as from private equity firms investing in mineral resources 1. Competition also extends to qualified personnel and equipment 1.
- Private oil and gas operators
Private E&P companies and mineral aggregators cited as rivals in acquiring assets 1.
- Public mineral companies
Listed companies that acquire mineral interests, described in the source as competitors in acquisitions 1.
- Private equity firms
Firms that previously did not invest in minerals but might acquire reserves as an investment 1.
- Large operators in target basins
Top-tier operators developing the wells from which the company receives royalties, also competing for capital and equipment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- ZPEK launches its own filling-station network: Oleg Chykyda unveils the Phoenix Energy brandKyiv Post · 05 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 05 Jun 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report22 Oct 2026Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report08 Jul 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 May 2026
- Annual report17 Mar 2026
- Current report13 Feb 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Jan 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Nov 2025Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Phoenix Energy One, LLC · 17 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Phoenix Energy One, LLC · 10 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.